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How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down

How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form.
TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later.
Ok, listen up normies.
Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you.
I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on.
CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
  1. When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
  2. The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know.
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell:
I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags.
This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS"
Let's take a look at some of today's gainers:
(changed tickers for automod avoidance)
$USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason
$SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day
$TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly
$OhGeeEye - lol
$HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has.

Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders.
If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.

THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:

Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain:

https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629
Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here.
The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher.
Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top.

https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d
It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up.
Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...

ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.

Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.
Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do.
200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads.
What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later).
But, this IS a casino after all...

Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):


https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b
Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe.
For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended.
Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn.
So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino.

Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
  1. $APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
  2. Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
  3. $CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
  4. $TLRY gets a UK deal
  5. $TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
  6. There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
  7. This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
  8. Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price.
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders.

Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:

NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.

IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS.

Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)*

Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play.
You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you.
THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER.
And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up?
The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on.
You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either.
These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.

SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.

Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.
Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down.


Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent.
Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb.
Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person.
Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe
Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages.
Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls
Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

/r/Perth Coronavirus Megathread - 31/01 - 07/02

WA Government - Lockdown Information
WA Government Infographic - Summary
WA Health - Locations visited by confirmed cases
HealthyWA - COVID Clinic Locations / Operating Hours
Lockdown Rules Summary (ABC News)
ABC COVID Live Blog - Sunday 31/01
Premier's Annoucement:
--- IMPORTANT UPDATE REGARDING COMMUNITY CASE OF COVID-19 IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA, AND PERTH, PEEL AND SOUTH-WEST FIVE-DAY LOCKDOWN ---
This morning, I convened an urgent meeting of the Emergency Management Team.
We have a serious update to provide the WA community.
This morning we received news of a positive COVID-19 test result.
That positive result has come from a male hotel quarantine security guard, in his 20s.
The information we have is fast-evolving. As you can understand, immediately our teams moved into place to begin contact tracing and put in place emergency response systems.
This is all underway, and I ask everyone to be cooperative and understanding of what is going to take place.
Here is what we know about the male who tested positive:
He was working at one of the State’s hotel quarantine facilities – the Sheraton Four Points in the city. He had tested negative for COVID-19 on January Friday 15, January Sunday 17 and Saturday January 23 – as part of the weekly testing system in place. When the man was working at this hotel, there were four active cases of COVID-19. Of those four cases, we have at least three confirmed variant strains, two UK and one South African. We are told the guard was working on the same floor, as a positive UK variant case. The guard completed two 12-hours shifts on both the 26th and 27th of January. Exactly how the infection was acquired remains under investigation.
The Health Department contact tracing team has pulled together a list of potential exposure sites of where this positive case has been in recent days. These locations currently include:
People who have been to these venues on these dates and times must get tested.
In addition, people who live or work in the Falkirk Avenue, Maylands area including Coles, Liquorland and the Maylands shopping precinct should present for a test. They must then go home and isolate until their negative test results are returned.
The investigation is on-going by our public health team, and it is likely more locations will be added following further discussions with the man.
Close contacts will be contacted by public health officials and asked to quarantine for 14 days.
More information on testing clinics will be available on our website – the WA Health and WA Gov websites.
The man’s immediate household contacts have been contacted, tested and placed in isolation at State managed quarantine facilities to complete a 14-day quarantine period in a quarantine facility.
All three have tested negative this morning. However, we can expect that they will become positive in coming days.
Genome sequencing is underway on the positive case and results will be known by Tuesday morning.
However, based on the information we have, it appears possible that this new positive case has the highly transmissible UK variant.
The past year has been unlike any other – Western Australia has done an incredible job. It’s something I am so proud of.
But as we have always known with COVID – it can change very quickly.
Today – we need to go back to what we know best, to ensure we limit community transmission of COVID-19 in our State.
Even though it was nearly 10 months ago – WA has experienced community transmission of this virus before.
We all did the right thing and we crushed it.
And it worked.
So beginning at 6pm tonight, the whole Perth metropolitan area, the Peel region and the South West region will be going into a full lockdown.
This lockdown will run until 6pm on Friday.
A five-day lockdown.
It’s crucial we act quickly, to keep the community safe.
We cannot forget how quickly this virus can spread, nor the devastation it can cause.
Following our discussions with the Chief Health Officer and Police Commissioner, the following measures will be put in place from 6pm for people in Perth, Peel and the South West:
People in these regions are required to stay home, except for the following four reasons:
In addition to this Stay Home rule.
If you do leave home, for one of the four reasons you will be required to wear a mask at all times outside and if you need to work indoors, then wearing a mask in the workplace is also mandatory.
To be clear, mask wearing on public transport is also mandatory.
People in the Perth, Peel or South West region need to stay inside their region for the next five days, unless for an essential reason.
We are strongly encouraging that everyone in this area, who is from another WA region, stay here and do not travel further outside of this area until the lockdown is over.
If you do need to travel outside the region you are in now, that can only occur if you need to return to your place of residence or exceptional circumstances.
The transport of essential goods into this region, is permitted, under our existing transport guidelines.
This lockdown means the following businesses, venues and locations in the relevant regions need to close for the next five days:
Restaurants and cafes will close, and provide takeaway service only.
10 people can attend funerals, weddings are cancelled for the next five days.
No visitors are permitted to your home, unless caring for someone vulnerable or an emergency.
No visitors will be allowed in aged care homes, unless exceptional circumstances.
No visitors to hospitals and/or disability facilities, unless exceptional circumstances.
Elective surgery and procedures for categories 2 and 3 will be suspended from Tuesday, 2 February. Category 1 and urgent category 2 surgery will continue.
For a majority of schools in these regions, school was due to start tomorrow.
That has now been put on hold and schools will be closed until next week – following the lockdown measures.
It is, in effect, an extension of the school holidays.
I have been in contact with the Prime Minister and my fellow State and Territory colleagues to advise them of this situation.
I have recommended that they put a stop to any travel into WA – as an extra precautionary measure.
Border controls are important here – and I 100% support them to ensure we can get through this.
All these measures will be reviewed regularly and the Chief Health Officer will continue to monitor the serious situation and provide more ongoing advice. This is an extremely fast-moving situation.
I know for many Western Australians this is going to come as a shock.
Western Australians have done so well for so long but this week it is absolutely crucial that we stay home, maintain physical distancing and personal hygiene and get tested if you have symptoms.
This is a very serious situation and each and every one of us has to do everything we personally can to help stop the spread in the community.
We have acted decisively and swiftly given these circumstances.
I want to thank everyone in advance for their patience.
In effect, for a short period of time, we are going back to what we experienced in March and April.
This is a highly unpredictable virus. But it is important to act calmly and take sensible precautions.
Leaving your home to purchase food and essentials will be permitted during the lockdown.
I say this, so people understand that you do not need to rush to the supermarket today.
Take care of your loved ones and be respectful of others including those who are working, to keep essential services and supplies ticking over.
Our State is well equipped to handle this situation.
We have systems in place throughout the health system that are swinging into action as we speak.
We have the capacity to manage this situation.
Throughout the pandemic, the response of Western Australians has been second-to-none.
The community has done everything we have asked of them.
They have made great sacrifices, and it has kept our State safe.
I could not be more proud and thankful of the way Western Australians have carried themselves.
Now we’re asking for your help once again.
We will provide further updates as they come to hand.
All relevant information will be posted on websites as it comes to hand.
Thank you WA.
submitted by squeeowl to perth [link] [comments]

[WA] A hotel security worker has contracted the virus, Premier Mark McGowan has announced

[WA] A hotel security worker has contracted the virus, Premier Mark McGowan has announced

New cases reported in the last 24 hours

  • Local cases:
    • +0 new local cases.
    • As per the media release, the case announced today will be reported in tomorrow’s case numbers, as the result came through following the end of the 24-hour reporting period.
  • Interstate cases:
    • +0 new interstate cases.
  • Overseas cases:
    • +0 new overseas cases.

Other news and information


Cases to date

Last 24 hours TOTAL
Confirmed cases +0 902
Active -3 12
Recovered +3 881
Deaths +0 9
Unknown +0 13
Test results received +519 721,959
Hospitalised +0 0
ICU +0 0

What we know so far about the security guard

  • WA Health today confirmed that a security guard who works at a State Supervised Quarantine Facility (hotel) has been diagnosed with COVID-19.
  • The guard, a man in his 20’s, worked at the Four Points Sheraton Hotel on Tuesday 26 January, Wednesday 27 January, when he could have acquired the infection, and was diagnosed with COVID-19 overnight.
  • This indicates that the guard likely acquired the infection while at the hotel. Exactly how the infection was acquired remains under investigation.
  • He developed symptoms on Thursday 28 January and phoned in sick and did not go to work at the quarantine facility.
  • COVID-19 was detected following the man’s mandatory day seven swab.
  • He had tested negative for COVID-19 on January Friday 15, January Sunday 17 and Saturday January 23.
  • There is a known case of UK B.1.1.7 variant strain in quarantine at the hotel.
  • The man’s immediate household contacts have been contacted, tested and placed in isolation at State managed quarantine facilities to complete a 14-day quarantine period in a quarantine facility. All three have tested negative this morning.
  • 🧬 Gene sequencing is under way and results will be known by Tuesday morning. However, based on the information WA Health have, it appears possible that this new positive case has the highly transmissible new UK variant.
  • McGowan: "I have been in contact with the Prime Minister and my fellow state and territory colleagues to advise them of the situation. I have recommended that they put a stop to any travel into Western Australia as an extra precautionary measure."

Perth, Peel and South West region enters lockdown from 6pm, 31 January 2021

Effective from 6pm tonight until 6pm Friday, 5 February 2021, the Perth metropolitan area, Peel and South West regions will enter a lockdown.
The following restrictions apply for the lockdown period:
  • People should not leave Perth, Peel or the South West during this period
  • People can enter Perth, Peel or the South West only to access or deliver essential health and emergency services and other essential requirements
  • Non-residents currently in Perth, Peel and the South West are required to remain until the end of the restriction period however if you must leave for serious reasons you are to then return home immediately, stay home and get tested if symptoms develop
  • Restaurants and cafes to provide takeaway service only
  • Elective surgery and procedures for categories 2 and 3 will be suspended from Tuesday, 2 February. Category 1 and urgent category 2 surgery will continue
  • No visitors will be allowed in homes unless caring for a vulnerable person or in an emergency
  • No visitors to hospitals or residential aged care and/or disability facilities
  • No weddings permitted
  • Funerals are limited to 10 people
  • Travel remains prohibited within remote Aboriginal communities.
The following facilities in the Perth, Peel and South West regions will need to close:
  • Schools, universities, TAFES and education facilities
  • Pubs, bars and clubs
  • Gyms and indoor sporting venues
  • Playgrounds, skate parks and outdoor recreational facilities
  • Cinemas, entertainment venues, and casinos
  • Large religious gatherings and places of worship
  • Libraries and cultural institutions
People will be required to stay at home unless they need to:
  • work because they can’t work from home or remotely;
  • shop for essentials like groceries, medicine and necessary supplies;
  • medical or health care needs including compassionate requirements and looking after the vulnerable; and
  • exercise within their neighbourhood, but only with one other person and only for one hour per day.
The lockdown has been introduced due to the detection of a positive COVID-19 case in a hotel quarantine worker. The case has been to the following locations and people who were at these venues on these dates must go get tested. In addition to the below sites, people who live or work in the Falkirk Avenue Maylands shopping centre precinct should present for a test.
https://preview.redd.it/x0wko3jtdqe61.jpg?width=892&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3100eac9e3272f2cb42dd37bff9951ed4d36fc26

Locations visited by confirmed case


Location Type Date of concern Time of concern
MaylandsColes - Caledonian Ave and Guildford Rd, Maylands WA 6051 Supermarket 25/01/2021 8.00 pm to 10.00 pm
MaylandsKentucky Fried Chicken - 209 Guildford Rd, Maylands WA 6051 Hospitality 27/01/2021 6.00 pm to 12 midnight
MidlandMitsubishi Motors -161 Great Eastern Highway, Midland WA 6056 Car dealership 27/01/2021 7.00 pm to close
MorleySpudshed - Coventry Village, 243-253 Walter Rd W, Morley WA 6062 Supermarket 27/01/2021 8.00 pm to midnight
PerthArena Convenience Store (Grab N Go) 3/69 Milligan Street, Perth WA 6000 Supermarket 27/01/2021 2.00 pm to 3.00 pm
JoondalupEdith Cowan University - 270 Joondalup Drive WA 6027 Building 31 University 28/01/2021 11.00 am to 2.00 pm
PerthVFS Global Indian Visa Services - L1, 195 Adelaide Tce, East Perth WA Commercial 28/01/2021 12.30 pm to 3.00 pm
CloverdaleHalal Grocery Store - 8/224 Belmont Ave, Cloverdale WA 6105 Supermarket 28/01/2021 7.00 pm to 9.00 pm
MaylandsVenus Ladies and Gentleman Hair Design - Maylands Park 238 Guilford Rd Maylands 6051 Hairdressers 29/01/2021 1.00 pm to 3.00 pm
PerthPerth Convention Centre - Perth WA 6000 Conference Centre 29/01/2021 4.00 pm to 6.00 pm
NedlandsNedlands Family Practice - Broadway Fair Shopping Centre, 9/88 Broadway, Nedlands WA 6009 GP surgery 29/01/2021 5.00 pm to 6.00 pm
North PerthChemist Warehouse - 412 Fitzgerald St, North Perth WA 6006 Pharmacy 29/01/2021 5.30 pm to 7.30 pm
Ascot7-Eleven - 194 Great Eastern Hwy, Ascot WA Petrol station 29/01/2021 8.00 pm to 9.00 pm
MaylandsColes - Caledonian Ave and Guildford Rd, Maylands WA 6051 Supermarket 29/01/2021 8.00 pm to 9.00pm
Burswood Puma Service Station - 265 Great Easter Hwy, Burswood WA Petrol station 30/01/2021 11.00 am to 12.00 pm
CloverdaleColes Express/shell service station - Wright St &, Belmont Ave, Cloverdale WA 6105 Petrol station 30/01/2021 12.00 pm to 1.00 pm
MaylandsPharmacy 777 - Maylands Park Shopping Centre 3, 238 Guildford Rd, Maylands WA 6051 Pharmacy 30/01/2021 2.30 pm to 4.00 pm


submitted by Stoaticor to CoronavirusDownunder [link] [comments]

Covid-19 Update for January 29: 543 new cases, 765 recoveries, 14 deaths + Outline of Relaunch Plan + Announced Relaxation for In-Person Dining Restrictions/Indoor Fitness

Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media availability with Premier Jason Kenney, Minister of Health Tyler Shandro, and Dr Deena Hinshaw. Dr Hinshaw's next availability it will be Monday.
There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Alberta is currently on "Early Steps", with the goal of reaching Step 1 on February 8th.
Top line numbers:
Value Current Change Total
Total cases +543 123,364
Active cases 7,805 -236
Cases with "Unknown source" 1,129 (34.8%) in last 7 days -49 (-0.3%)
Tests +11,608 (~4.68% positive) 3,154,153
People tested +3,029 1,749,944 (~400,353/million)
Hospitalizations 594 +3/-7 based on yesterday's post/portal data 5,326 (+33)
ICU 110 -2/-3 based on yesterday's post/portal data 858 (+7)
Deaths +14 1,620
Recoveries +765 113,939
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket New Deaths Total Deaths
20-29 0 7
30-39 1 8
40-49 0 18
50-59 0 51
60-69 1 164
70-79 3 321
80+ 9 1,050
Unknown 0 1
Vaccinations
Value Change Total
Vaccinations +1,803 104,327 (~23,868/million)
Albertans with 2 vaccinations +1,680 14,352 (~3,283/million)
Reported UK and South Africa Variants
  • The value is updated by Alberta Health weekly
  • Last update: January 29
Variant Change since last update (January 25) Cases
United Kingdom (B.1.1.7) +11 31
South Africa (B.1.351) +1 6
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths:
  • All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
Zone Active Cases People Tested Total New Cases Total New Deaths Total
Calgary 3,138 (-64) +1,203 708,112 +223 47,320 +1 505
Central 692 (-18) +290 155,673 +67 8,777 +3 87
Edmonton 2,662 (-102) +834 581,259 +155 51,266 +9 848
North 957 (-53) +350 164,314 +58 10,049 +1 109
South 340 (+4) +179 108,042 +39 5,822 +0 71
Unknown 16 (-3) +173 32,544 +1 130 +0 0
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
  • The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
  • Last update: January 25
  • What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
Zone R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide 0.81 (0.79-0.84)
Edmonton 0.81 (0.77-0.85)
Calgary 0.83 (0.79-0.87)
Rest of Province 0.77 (0.73-0.82)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality Total Active Recovered Deaths
Edmonton 41,833 (+122) 2,134 (-87) 38,987 (+204) 712 (+5)
Calgary 39,762 (+185) 2,592 (-41) 36,718 (+225) 452 (+1)
Red Deer 1,844 (+17) 174 (+2) 1,651 (+14) 19 (+1)
Lethbridge 1,704 (+29) 133 (+15) 1,559 (+14) 12 (+0)
Fort McMurray 1,681 (+2) 92 (-10) 1,586 (+12) 3 (+0)
Brooks 1,361 (+0) 3 (-1) 1,344 (+1) 14 (+0)
Grande Prairie 1,150 (+7) 147 (-5) 984 (+12) 19 (+0)
High River + county 769 (+0) 24 (-3) 738 (+3) 7 (+0)
Mackenzie county 553 (+7) 40 (+4) 498 (+3) 15 (+0)
Medicine Hat 527 (+2) 21 (+0) 493 (+2) 13 (+0)
Cardston county 466 (+4) 83 (-7) 377 (+11) 6 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff) 423 (+11) 29 (+11) 394 (+0) 0
Wheatland county 232 (+2) 14 (+1) 218 (+1) 0
Warner county 158 (+0) 6 (+0) 150 (+0) 2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality 133 (+2) 9 (+2) 124 (+0) 0
Rest of Alberta 30,768 (+153) 2,304 (-117) 28,118 (+263) 346 (+7)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link
Schools with outbreaks are listed online.
Quick numbers (changes since yesterday):
  • 114 school are on alert (2-4 active cases) (+4)
  • 15 schools are on outbreak with 5-9 active cases (+2)
  • 4 school is on outbreak with over 10 active cases (+0)
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change as of yesterday's post):
  • Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone Hospitalized ICU
Calgary 199 (+8) 48 (+2)
Edmonton 246 (-9) 38 (-4)
Central 45 (-1) 7 (+0)
South 34 (+3) 8 (-1)
North 70 (+2) 9 (+1)
Statements by Premier Kenney
Opening Remarks
  • Alberta must continue to proceed cautiously
  • System is managing as a province, but some hospital facilities is still significant
  • Peak reached in early January (>90% Covid capable bed occupancy)
  • Problem in every region of the province as many rural regions are cared for in Calgary/Edmonton
  • All healthcare workers have limits and we must protect capacity
  • Notes (i) Peter Lougheed and Butterdome field units, (ii) AHS having no budget limits at the moment, and (iii) limited staff available
Restrictions
  • Recognizes that stress that comes with economic and employment instability
  • Why a "lockdown" has never been imposed with curfews, closed schools, and business closure
  • Broad public support and compliance is important
  • To strike this balance, wants to show a path forward...that bending curve lets public health measures lift
  • Must be carefully, slowly, and data driven
Restriction Metrics
  • Restrictions will be lifted in a stepped approach based on hospitalizations (ICU and general acute) values. It is a lagging indicator of healthcare capacity
  • When a benchmark is reached, discussion will be considered for further advancement of relaxation. Hospitalizations will be primary factor, but growth of cases will also be considered
  • Hospitalizations will be reviewed 3 weeks later. If hospitalizations have continued to fall, further progression will be considered
  • Case numbers represent recent trends and will be used to determine if relaxations need to be paused or if additional restrictions are needed
  • If cases surge to exponential growth and if a variant begins to increase spread, restrictions will be imposed again
Details of Relaxation Plan
  • Some restrictions will apply in all steps and at least 3 weeks are place in between each step
  • Early Steps: Schools open, outdoor gatherings up to 10 people, personal and wellness by appointment only, funerals up to 20 people
  • Step 1 - Begins February 8th: Some easing in school function (indoooutdoor sports, performance activities), some indoor fitness, some dine-in options for restaurants/cafes/pubs bound by clear limitations (e.g. - distancing requirements, group size, masking, etc).
  • Step 2 - Requires: Average hospitalization <450: Some easing for retail, banquet halls, community halls, hotels, conference centres. Some further easing on children sports/performance, indoor fitness
  • Step 3 - Requires: Average hospitalization <300: Consider places of worship and limited reopening of museums, libraries, casinos, and indoor seated events. Consider indoor indoor social gatherings with limitations. All that are considered will have restrictions still
  • Step 4 - Requires: Average hospitalization <150: Restrictions will exist, but will be closer to last summer. Wide range of indoor and indoor activities would be considered. Wedding/funeral receptions, trade shows, are on the table at this point
  • Requires buy in from Albertans
  • As measures are eased, community spread can occur
  • Moving from 1 stage to another will not be automatic - it will be open for discussion
  • Leading indicators will be used to warn of "red flags" for pausing relaxation
Closing Remarks
  • Minister of Jobs Doug Schweitzer will make announcements for support in coming days
  • Hopes that this will be a boost to Albertans and Albertan businesses
  • We are not at the end and it will be a while until we see a real effect from vaccines. Variants add to the challenge
  • This is not "back to normal" and if we think so, we'll start rolling back steps of the above plan again
Q&A
  • There are people who willingly ignore restrictions. What should be done here?: Enforcement is last resort. Regrettable to see that people are doing this and it is disrespectful to healthcare staff; they are saying they are more important than healthcare and can hurt the entire province. Understands the frustration, but things won't improve if people continue to break rules. Calls politicians who support ignoring restrictions "irresponsible" and thinks stronger enforcement is required
  • (Upon prompting, Dr Hinshaw added that most Albertans are following restrictions and cannot let the minority dictate the actions of the majority - more compliance results in higher potential for restrictions down the road)
  • How much decision making is politics in UCP strongholds?: Decisions in Covid cabinet are data driven. One factor is population compliance; polling say it's about 20% of Albertans think restrictions are too stringent, 40% say it's about right, 40% not strong enough (believes there is no strong consensus). Believes vast majority of Albertans are compliant
  • Who will get delayed with limited vaccine doses?: Defers to Minister Shandro. Notes he is worried about EU restricting exports of vaccine and asks federal government put pressure on Pfizer
  • (Minister Shandro: Still reviewing. Will follow recommendations of health officials and defers to Dr Hinshaw)
  • (Dr Hinshaw: Risk of severe outcomes driven. Still need to review)
Statements by Dr Hinshaw
Cases
  • ~12% of schools have active cases (607 cases combined)
  • Active cases in 291 schools
  • 12 cases of variants identified: 31 UK total, 6 from South Africa
  • All but 3 linked to travel and from same household (1 was the community spread case)
  • No evidence of further community spread
Relaxations
  • Knows many Albertans are keen to return to activities they have missed
  • Most important step will be following restrictions in spirit
  • If in-person interactions can be replaced, cases will further reduce and prevent spread of variants
Q&A
  • What data is being used for deciding Step 1?: Uses BC as an example for successful limited service in these activities and did study of where spread can occur. Group fitness events are high spread (especially high intensity). Opening for fitness will be to bar high intensity fitness. Opening only low risk parts (e.g. - only a single household at a table). More information next week.
  • (Premier Kenney added that global data was used)
  • How much did Covid variant affect this plan?: Key part of plan is followed by 3 weeks of observation. A part of the 3 week timeline is to monitor for rising cases. This will allow for monitoring
  • How confident are you in containing variant?: Concerning in case identification. Significant testing of incoming travellers has allowed for early containment of most cases
  • (Premier Kenney added: Concerned for widespread risk of variant. Also considers some positives in vaccines being rolled out and increased contact tracing)
Statements by Minster Shandro
  • Proud of progress of vaccination
  • Notes Moderna's cut; it feels like Alberta isn't a priority
  • Alberta Health was informed that it will reduce from 24,600 to 18,800 doses (5,800 fewer. ~23.5%)
  • Informed all February Moderna deliveries being accessed, so unknown how much Alberta will receive in that time
  • Accessing impact on first and second doses
  • Knows the frustration from Albertans and thinks new from federal governments continues getting worse
  • Wants a national strategy for vaccine supply
Q&A
  • Does reopening 1 week from now contradict previous comments from Dr Hinshaw/Minister Shandro?: 2 important messages about "stepping up and stepping down". Trying to show Albertans how it could happen and separate from message of potential for further restrictions if cases spread further
  • (Upon request from Minister Shandro, Premier Kenney added: The approach is very gradual and are already available in neighbouring provinces of BC and Saskatchewan. Will monitor closely as to best balance multiple pressure on the province. Notes mental health has worsened because of economic stresses for business owners)
  • (Dr Hinshaw was asked to add by Premier Kenney: Notes that significant restrictions will exist in the sectors that reopen. But to get more than that will take more work from Albertans to reduce cases and hospitalization)
Additional information will be logged below:
  • The final question was for Premier Kenney in French. While I cannot translate, the reporter stated it was about the compliance of Albertans on vaccines.
submitted by kirant to alberta [link] [comments]

$SNE, MASSIVE DOUBLE DICK INSIDE. Poised to moon long-term (Computer vision boom, EV boom, autonomous driving tech, gaming boom, music streaming boom, cross-media IP, vertically integrated anime streaming monopoly, online medical services boom, shift to mirrorless cameras)

$SNE, MASSIVE DOUBLE DICK INSIDE. Poised to moon long-term (Computer vision boom, EV boom, autonomous driving tech, gaming boom, music streaming boom, cross-media IP, vertically integrated anime streaming monopoly, online medical services boom, shift to mirrorless cameras)
Listen up retards. Do you happen to feel regret because you always think “ohhh if I yoloed my savings on TSLA/AMD/NVDA 🚀 leaps years ago I could be rich by now!!!”
Well if you didn't know already, it doesn’t really matter what happened in the past. Hindsight will always be 20/20. You shouldn’t be harsh on yourself on your past self that your past self wasn’t retarded enough to yolo their savings into AMD/TSLA/.... Your past self doesn’t have the same knowledge that your current self has. It’s fine. If you judged those stocks with the best DD you could do at the time and didn’t think they were worth it, then you did a good job.
If you always think about what you could/should have done in the past, then you don't have the right attitude to play the stock market casino imho.
The single most important thing is to be able to look ahead. There are always plenty of opportunities around. There are thousands of rockets that are still on earth right now. Some may depart this year, others will stay a little longer on earth. The true strength lies in being able to identify those rockets with the knowledge you have right now. And if you still miss most rockets that will take-off this year that's fine, maybe you'll learn, get better and you'll do better next year.
Now, what if I told you there’s a big rocket that’s parked right right here on earth and it has decent chance for take-off this year? Maybe it won't quite reach the moon this year yet, but hey leaving the exosphere should already be a cool milestone.
It has rock-solid fundamentals and will see lots of growth in the following years/decade.
It’s a company that has the fundamental technology to power all the computer vision tech, which is bound to boom this decade.
The company we’re talking about is of course Sony, and it is extremely undervalued right now.
Its P/E is only 14. They have a P/S of 1.65, a PEG of 0.92 (< 2 is already somewhat exceptional for a company/conglomerate of Sony’s size, under 1 is a steal)
Much lower than all of its same-sector peers. This indicates significant undervaluation.
Next up Sony has a P/CF 13.2, ROE of 20% (S&P 500 average is 14% which would already be considered pretty good. 20% ROE is excellent), PEGY of 0.89, P/B of 2.65 and finally Sony has $41.6B in cash on hand. This makes Sony one of the cheapest tech/entertainment/EV/semiconductor growth stocks you will find on the market.
(ROE of 20% + PEGY of 0.89 + PEG of 0.92 means this company is a growth stock based on the numbers alone, but we’ll dig into the actual company and overall outlook in a moment)
I challenge all retards to find a company with similar benchmarks in one of the mentioned sectors, seriously.
Quite frankly doing this DD honestly blew my mind. I kept looking everywhere for reasons why the company could be so undervalued and why they may struggle in the future. Very important to look at all the challenges the company faces to make sure I’m not just doing confirmation bias DD. But all I could find was the opposite. After several weeks and months of working on this DD, I can only conclude that it is overall a very solid company for a bargain price. The new CEO is taking the company in a great direction imho and I'm begin to think he could be Sony's Satya Nadella.
So if you want some easy tendies, maybe consider $SNE while it is still cheap, I’d say.
For the autists out there who care about analyst ratings, SONY ($SNE) currently has 18 BUY ratings, 2 OVERWEIGHT, 4 HOLD and 0 SELL. (= analyst consensus is a STRONG BUY). Very little analysts cover this stock compared to other entertainment/tech companies, so this adds to my assertion that the stock is very much under the radar. Which means you have time to get in before it gets noticed by the larger investing world and before it starts to get a more fair valuation (P/E of around 30 would be more fair for this company I think, but still cheaper than many same sector peers). But, anyway the few analysts who do happen to cover this company are basically all saying it’s an instant-buy at its current price.
Most boomer investors still think big Japanese tech companies are dinosaurs that have long been surpassed by China, South Korea and Apple etc ages ago. Young boomers may think Sony = PlayStation and that it's it. But the truth is that PlayStation, while very important (about 24% of Sony's total revenue last year), is a part of a larger story.
Lots of investors in general associate Sony with the passé Japanese electronics companies from the 80’s and the 90’s. Just like a lot people may think BlackBerry is a struggling phone company.
While Sony may not be the powerhouse in consumer electronics it was in the 80’s and the 90’s, in a lot of ways they are more relevant than ever before. Despite being a well-known brand and being known as the company behind PlayStation, for some reason its stock still seems to be under the radar among both retail and institutional investors. And boy, are they mind-blowingly undervalued. Even if a big part of its business would collapse tomorrow, they would still be slightly undervalued. And I am about to tell you why.
(& btw compared to Japanese tech/entertainment stocks $SNE is still super cheap (Canon, Nikon, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, Square Enix, Capcom, Nintendo, Fujitsu all have P/E ratios ranging from 18 to 77 and none of them have the combination of global clout, fundamentals & growth prospects that Sony has))
2021 Sony as a corparation is not the fucking Sony from 2005-2015’s, just like BlackBerry in 2021 is not the fucking Blackberry from 2012. Just like Garmin in 2021 is not Garmin from 2011. Just like AMD in 2021 is not AMD from 2012.
No, in 2021, Sony is the global leader in imaging technology and people do not fucking realize it. Sony has 50% marketshare in the CMOS image sensor market. There’s a very good chance the smartphone in your pocket has Sony image sensors (unless it’s a Samsung phone). Sony image sensors are powering a big part of today's vision/camera technology. And they will power even more of tomorrow's computer vision tech.
In 2021, Sony is a behemoth in video games, music, anime, movies and TV show production. Sony is present in every segment of entertainment. Sony’s entertainment branches have been doing great business over the past 5 years, especially music and PlayStation. Additionally, Sony Pictures has completely turned around.
In 2021, Sony is the world’s biggest music publisher (and second biggest music company overall). Music streaming has been a boon for Sony Music and will continue to be.
In 2021, Sony is among the biggest mobile gaming companies in the world (yes, you read that right). And it’s mainly thanks to one game (Fate/Grand Order) that nets them over $1B revenue each year. One of the biggest mobile gaming companies + arguably biggest gaming brand in the world (PlayStation).
In 2021, Sony is an EV company. They surprised the world when they revealed their “Vision-S” at CES 2020. At the reception was fantastic. It is seriously one of the best looking EV’s. They already sell sensors to Toyota. Sony will most like sell the Vision-S's tech to other car manufacturers (sensors for driving assistence / autonomous driving, LiDAR tech, infotainment system).

40 sensors in the Sony Vision-S
Considering the overwhelmingly good reception of the Vision-S so far, I suspect the Vision-S could be another catalyst that will put Sony as a company on the radar of investors and consumers.
We've seen insane investment hype for anything even remotely related to EV over the past year. We've seen a company that barely had a few EV design concepts (oh wait, they had a gravity-powered truck though) even get a $30B market cap at some point lmao.
But somehow a profitable company ($SNE) that has an EV that you can actually drive, doesn't even have a fair valuation?
In 2020’s Sony’s brand value is at their highest point since 12 years. In 2021, it is projected to be a its highest point since 2001 assuming same growth as average yearly growth from 2015 to 2020. Keep in mind brand valuation is a bit bullshitty as there’s no standardization to compare brands from different sectors, let alone non-consumer-facing brands with consumer-facing brands. But one thing we can note is that Sony both as B2C brand and as a B2B company is on a big upwards trend.
https://interbrand.com/best-global-brands/sony/
https://careers.uw.edu/blog/2020/03/17/these-are-the-10-biggest-video-game-companies-in-north-america-shared-article-from-zippia/
In 2021, Sony is an entertainment behemoth. They have grown their entertainment branches by a huge amount over the past 5 to 10 years (they made some big acquisitions in the music space especially and they’re now also all-in in anime). I don’t think people realize how big Sony is as an entertainment company. I dug up the numbers and as of Q3 2020, PlayStation is the second biggest video game company in the world (Tencent is #1) in revenue (I suspect Sony might dethrone Tencent after Sony’s FY Q3 2020 is released). But Sony already comes very close to Tencent especially if you add Fate/Grand Order (which is under Sony Music and not under PlayStation) under PlayStation.
There’s no single other company that has this unique combination of a dominant/important position in all entertainment segments. (video games + music + movies + TV series + anime + TV networks). I guess Tencent maybe?
In 2021, Sony has amazing momentum in the camera space. If you’re familiar with the enthusiast photography space, you should know this. Basically, the market is slowly shifting from SLR to mirrorless cameras. This is because mirrorless cameras tend to smallelighter, have faster AF, better low light performance, better battery life and better video performance. Sony is the company that has been specializing in the development for mirrorless cameras for over a decade while Canon’s bread and butter has always been SLR cameras. Sony is in the lead when it comes to mirrorless cameras and that’s where the market is shifting towards. Because the advantages of mirrorless have become more and more apparent and Sony’s cameras have become technically superior, Sony has gained quite a bit of market share over Canon and Nikon in the last few years. In 2019, Sony overtook Nikon as the #2 camera manufacturer. Sony is in an upwards trend here. (they have the ambition to become the world’s #1 camera brand) Sony also has very good marketing for their cameras. (Sony has a lot of YouTubers / influencers / brand ambassadors for their cameras despite being a smaller brand than Canon)
(just search on YouTube and/or Google “switching to Sony from Canon” just to give you an idea that they do have amazing brand momentum in the camera space. You won’t get as many hits for the opposite)
A huge portion of Sony’s profit comes from image sensors in addition to music and video games. This is in addition to their highly profitable financial holdings division & their more moderately profitable electronics division.
Sony’s electronics division, unlike other Japanese brands, has shown great resilience against the very strong competition from China & South Korea. They have been able to maintain their position in the audio space and as of 2020 are still the global market leader in high-end TV’s (a position they have been holding for decades) and it seems they will continue to be able to maintain that.
But seriously this company is dirt-cheap compared to any of its peers in any segment and there’s various huge growth prospects for Sony:
  • CMOS image sensors & Sony’s overall imaging prowess will boom due to increased demand from automotive sector, security & surveillance industry, manufacturing industry, medical sector and finally from the aerospace & defence industry. On the longer term, image sensors will continue to boom due to increased demand for computer vision & AI + robotics. And for consumer electronics demand will remain very high obviously.
  • Sony is aiming for 60% market share in the CMOS image sensor market by 2026. Biggest threat here is Samsung here who have recently started to aggressively invest in image sensors and are challenging Sony. Sony has technological lead + higher production capacity (and Sony will soon open a new plant in Nagasaki), so Sony should be able to hold off Samsung.
  • The iPhone 12 Pro has 3 cameras + a lidar sensor. Apple now buys 3 image sensors (from Sony) + LiDAR sensor (from Sony) per iPhone 12 Pro they manufacture. Remember the iPhone X and iPhone XS? That one had “only” 2 rear cameras (with image sensos from Sony of course). Basically, Sony will be selling exponentially more image sensors as more smartphones get equipped with more and more cameras.
  • Now think about how many image sensors Sony can sell to Apple if the iPhone 13 will have 5 cameras + LiDAR sensor (I mean the number of cameras on smartphones certainly won’t decrease)
  • Gaming (PS5 hype, PSN game sales are booming, add-on content is booming, PS+ subscribers count is booming and finally PSNow & first-party games sales are trending upwards as well). Very consistent year-on-year profit & revenue growth here. They have a history of beating earnings expectations here. The number of PS+ subscribers went from 4M to 48M in just 6-7 years. Investors love to hype up recurring revenue and subscription services such as Disney+ and Netflix. Let’s apply the same logic to PS+? PS+ already has more subscribers than HBO Max in the USA.
  • PlayStation (video games in general) has not even scratched the fucking surface. Most people who play video games now are millennials and kids. Do you think those millennials will stop playing video games when they grow older? No, of course not. Boomers today also still watch movies and TV. Those millennials have kids and those kids are now also playing video games. The kids of those kids will also play video games etc. Basically the total addressable audience for video games will by HUGE by the end of the decade (and the decades after that) because video games will have penetrated all age ranges of the population. Gaming is the fastest growing segment of the whole entertainment business. By a large margin. PlayStation is obviously in a great position here as you can guess from the PS5 hype, but more importantly imho, the growth of PS+ subscribers (currently a bit under 50 million) and PSN users (>100 million MAU) over the past 5 years shows that PlayStation is primed to profit from the audience growth.
  • On top of that you have huge video game growth in the China where Sony & PlayStation is already much better established than Xbox (but still super small compared to mobile games and PC gaming in China). Within the console market, Xbox only competes with PlayStation in North America. In the rest of the world, PlayStation has an enormous lead over Xbox. Xbox is simply a lesser known and lesser desirable brand in the rest of the world
  • Anime streaming (basically they have a monopoly already + vertical integration, it might still be somewhat niche right now, but it will be big within 5 years. Acquiring Crunchyroll was a very good move)
  • Music streaming (no, they don’t have a music streaming service, but as music streaming grows, Sony Music also gets a piece of the growing pie through licensing/royalties, and they also still have a little 2.8% stake in Spotify)
  • Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are currently battling it out in the streaming wars. When there’s a war you have little chances of winning, you shouldn’t be the one waging the war. You should be the one selling the ammo. Basically Sony Pictures (tv shows + movies) is in that position. Sony Pictures can negotiate good prices for their content because Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T are thirsty for content and they all want their own exclusive content. Sony Pictures does not need to prop up their own streaming service just like Sony Music doesn’t need their own music streaming service when they can just license out their content and turn a profit. There will always be demand for TV & movies content, so Sony Pictures is well positioned is as an independent content provider. And while Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are battling it out on the forefront, Sony is quietly building their anime empire in the background. Genius business move from Sony here, seriously. They now have anime production & distribution.
  • Netflix has 200M subscribers and they currently have a 250M market cap. Think about what Sony will have in 5 years? >30M Crunchyroll subscribers (assuming all anime will be consolidated into Crunhyroll) & >100M PS+ & PSNow subscribers? Anime and gaming is growing faster than movies and TV shows. (9% CAGR for anime, 12% CAGR for gaming vs. 5% CAGR for the whole movies & TV show entertainment segment which includes PVOD, SVOD, box office, TV etc etc). And gaming as a whole is MUCH bigger than SVOD streaming. Netflix gets 99% of their revenue & profit through subscriptions. For the whole Sony Group Corporation, their subscription services (games + anime) it’s currently only 4.5% of their total revenue. And somehow Sony currently has a meagre $128B market cap?
  • PlayStation alone is bigger than Netflix in terms of operating profit. PlayStation has a MUCH higher profit margin than Netflix. For Q3 2020 Netflix posted $790M operating profit and PlayStation posted $988M operating profit. Revenue was was $6.44B for Netflix vs. $4.77B for PlayStation. (and btw Sony’s mobile gaming revenue (~$1B / year) is under Sony Music, it is not even in those PlayStation numbers!!!)
  • Think about it. PlayStation alone posts bigger operating profit than Netflix (yes revenue is bit smaller, but it’s the operating profit that matters most). And gaming is growing faster than movies. And PlayStation is about 24% of Sony’s total revenue. And yet Netflix has a market cap that is equal to the double of Sony's market cap? Basically If you apply Netflix’ valuation to PlayStation then PlayStation alone should have a bigger market cap than Netflix' market cap.

PS+ growth and software digital ratio growth

  • Sony Vision-S & autonomous driving tech (selling sensors + infotainment system to other car manufacturers). Sony surprised everyone when they revealed their Sony Vision-S electric vehicle last year at CES 2020 (in-house design and made in cooperation with Magna Steyr). And it’s currently being tested on public roads. Over the past year we have seen absurdly big investment hype into anything even remotely related to EV’s (including a few questionable companies). We’ve even seen an EV company with a gravity-powered truck get a $30B market cap in June last year. Meanwhile Sony, out of nowhere, revealed what is arguably (subjectively) one of the best looking EV’s. It got very positive reception at CES 2020. An EV that you can actually drive. But somehow their stock is still dirt-cheap based on their current fundamentals alone? Yet some companies that had pretty much nothing but some EV design concepts got insane valuations purely due to hype?
  • LTE chips for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Altair Semiconductors)
  • Cross-media IP (The Last of Us show on HBO, Uncharted movie etc). Huge unrealized potential synergy here (it’s about to change). We have seen that it can turn out super well when you look at The Witcher, Sonic the Hedgehog and Detective Pikachu. When The Witcher released on Netflix, sales of The Witcher 3 significantly increased again. Imagine the same thing, but with Sony IP’s. Sony Pictures is currently working on 7 video game IP based TV shows and 3 movies. We know The Last of Us tv series is currently in production for HBO. And then the Uncharted is currently in post-production and scheduled to be released in July this year currently. If Uncharted turns out to be successful, it will mark a big, new milestone for Sony as an entertainment company imho.
  • Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan subsidiary for anime production, distribution & mobile games) had a fantastic year in 2020. (more on this later) There is a lot of room for mobile games growth with Aniplex. Thanks to Aniplex, Sony might beat their earnings forecast.
  • Drones. DJI just got put on Entity List in USA and Sony started developing drones for prosumer / professional a few years ago. Big opportunity for Sony here to take a bit from DJI’s dominance. It only makes sense for Sony to enter the drone market targeting the professional & prosumer video market, considering Sony’s established position in the professional audio/video/photography space
  • Currently Sony also has several ventures & investments in AI & robotics
  • Over the past decade, Sony has also carefully expanded into medical equipment tech & biotechnology. Worth noting that Sony also has an important 33% stake in M3 inc (a medical services through-the-internet company with a market cap of $65.5B) (= just their stake in M3 Inc is worth $22B alone, remember Sony, with their large, diversified revenue streams & assets only has a market cap of $128B?)
  • Sony Pictures has a great upcoming movie slate (MCU Spider-Man, Uncharted, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Venom 2, Morbius, Spider-Verse sequel, Hotel Transylvania 4, Peter Rabbit 2, Vivo, The Nightingale). They will profit from the theatre reopening and covid recovery. They may even become more favourable among movie theatre chains because they won’t release their movies on the same day on streaming services like Warner (and yeah movie theatres are here to stay, at least for a while imho)
  • All the above comes on top of established, mature markets (Financial Holdings & Electronic Products)
  • Oh yeah, btw though TV’s are a cyclical and mature market and are not that important for Sony Group Corporation’s bottomline*, Sony TV’s will continue to do well for the following successive years: o 2020: continued pandemic boost
  1. 2020-2021: PS5 / Xbox Series X/S
  2. 2021 Summer Olympics (tv sales ALWAYS spike during the olympics) (& the effect is more pronounced for high-end TV’s, = good for Sony because Sony’s market share is concentrated in the high-end range (they are market leader in the high-end range)
  3. 2022 FIFA world cup (exact same thing as for the olympics)
  4. You could say it’s already priced in, but the stock is already ridiculously undervalued so idk…
You would think this company somehow has a bad outlook, but that could not be further from the true, let me explain and go over some of the different divisions and explain why they will moon:
Sony Entertainment
While Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Amazon, and Apple are waging the great streaming war, Sony has been quietly building its anime streaming empire over the past years.
  • Sony recently acquired Crunchyroll for $1.175B (it is a great deal for Sony imho and will immediately be more valuable under Sony. Considering the growing appetite for anime I honestly do not even understand why AT&T sold it, they could have integrated it with their other streaming service (HBO Max) but ok)
  • With Crunchyroll Sony now has the following anime empire:
  • Aniplex (anime production & distribution, subsidiary of Sony Music Entertainment Japan) F
  • Funimation
  • Manga Entertainment UK (production, licensing, and distribution, UK)
  • Wakanam (licensing and distribution in Europe)
  • AnimeLab (licensing and distribution in Australia & New Zealand)
  • Crunchyroll (3 million paying subcribers, 90 million registered users and 50 million social media followers)
* Why anime matters:

Anime growth
“The global size is expected to reach USD 36.26 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period, according to a study conducted by Grand View Research, Inc. Growing popularity and sales of Japanese anime content across the globe apart from Japan is driving the growth”
(tl;dr anime 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀, Sony is all in on anime and they have pretty much no competition)
Anime is the fastest growing subsegment of movies/video entertainment worldwide.
  • Sony also has a partnership with Bilibili for anime distribution in China:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201903/26/WS5c990d93a3104842260b2737.html
  • Bilibili already partnered with Sony Music Entertainment Japan to bring Aniplex’s hugely successful Aniplex’s Fate/Grand Order mobile game in China.
  • Sony acquired a 5% stake in Bilibili for $400M in March 2020 (that 5% stake is now already worth $2.33B at Bilibili’s current share price ($BILI) and imho $BILI still has lots of upside potential considering it is the de facto video creation/sharing/viewing à la YouTube/Twitch for GenZ in China)
https://ir.bilibili.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bilibili-announces-equity-investment-sony

Sony Music Entertainment Japan
Aniplex
  • Sony Music (mobile games) generated $400M revenue from its mobile games in Q2 FY2020, published through Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan, “SMEJ”) subsidiary
  • They are the publisher of Fate/Grand Order, one of the most profitable mobile video games of the past 5 years (has generated $4B in revenue (!!) by the end of 2019 and is still as popular as ever). Fate/Grand order is the 7th most profitable mobile game in revenue worldwide as of 2020 (!)
Fate/Grand Order #9 game by revenue last year as of Q3 2020

  • Aniplex launched Disney: Twisted Wonderland in March this year. In Q3, it was the #10 most downloaded mobile game in Japan. (Aniplex now has two top ten games in Japan)
  • Fate/Grand Order was the #2 most tweeted game in 2020 and #3 was Disney: Twisted Wonderland. You can see that Aniplex has two hugely successful mobile games. (we are talking close to $1B of revenue a year here). It is the #2 game in Japan by total revenue from Q1 2016 to Q3 2020 and the #9 game in worldwide revenue from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020.
Aniplex has two very popular mobile games
  • SMEJ earns about > $1B from mobile games in revenue from mobile games and there is still a lot of future growth potential here considering Japan’s mobile game market grew a whopping 32% yoy from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020.
  • Aniplex recently co-distrubuted the movie Demon Slayer: Mugen Train in Japan in October 2020. It became the highest grossing film of all time in Japan with a total gross box office revenue of $380M. In the middle of a pandemic. It still needs to release in South Korea, China and USA where it will most likely do great as well.
Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) (Game & Netwerk Services business unit):

  • We all know 2020 was a huge year for video games with the stay-at-home pandemic boost. The whole video game sector brought in $180B of revenue in 2020, a whopping 20% increase yoy.
  • But 2020 will not be just a one-off temporary exceptional year for video games. The video game market has a CAGR of 13% which means it will be worth $291B in 2027. Video games is by far the segment with the highest growth rate in the whole entertainment industry.

US video game market growth (worldwide growth has a 13% CAGR)

PlayStation revenue and operating profit growth

  • PlayStation obviously has a huge piece of this pie and over the past years has seen consistent yoy revenue and profit growth. Think about it, for every FIFA/Call of Duty/Assassin’s Creed sold on PS4/PS5, Sony gets a 30% cut. There have been sold a billion PS4 games so far.
  • 5 years ago 20 to 30% of PS4 games were purchased digitally. Flashforward to 2020 and it’s 60-75% and the digital ratio looks set to still increase a bit. This means higher profit margin for game publishers and for Sony at the expense of retailers
  • SIE has seen huge success in its first-party games over the past 5 years. Spider-Man, God of War, Horizon: Zero Dawn, The Last of Us Part 2, Uncharted 4, Ghost of Tsushima, Days Gone, Ratchet & Clank have all been huge successes. This is really big and represents a big change compared to the previous generations where Sony never really hit it big as a games publisher even though most of their games were considered quality games.
  • SIE is now not only a powerful platform holdeprovider, but also a very successful games publisher with popular IP’s (Uncharted, God of War, The Last of Us, Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, Ratchet & Clank). This is an enormous asset, because firstly it increases the chances of success for cross-media opportunities (Sony Pictures can make TV shows and movies out of it to expand the popularity of those IP’s even more). And secondly, it is an obvious selling point for PS5. The more popular and bigger their exclusive content, the more they can draw people to their platform/service. This should increases PS5 total marketshare over its competitor.
  • The hype for God of War: Ragnarok will be absolutely through the roof. Hype for Horizon: Forbidden West is also very good already (10 million yt views, 273K likes which is very good). Gran Turismo 7 and Ratchet & Clank will also do very well in 2021. (I suspect that GoW oand Horizon might be delayed to 2022)
  • PS5 reception has been extremely good. Demand is through the roof as well all know. The only problem is that they cannot quite capitalize on the demand due to lack of supply, but overall, it is a very good thing that demand is very high, and that reception has been very positive. The challenge will primarily supply and production-related for the following 6 months and to be able to maintain brand momentum. Hopefully, they won’t push disappointed/inpatient customers to competitors.
  • Considering there’s backwards compatibility from PS4 to PS5, users will want all their PSN content to transition with them as well, so I expect them to lose very little marketshare to Xbox. Also, I do not know if Americans realize it, but Xbox is not nearly as big as PlayStation in the rest of the world as it is in the USA. PlayStation just has global brand power that Xbox just doesn’t have, so Xbox isn’t much of threat at all I’d say. Where I live, in Belgium, In Europe everyone is talking about the PS5, nobody really seems to care about Xbox Series S/X that much. Comparing PlayStation to Xbox in terms of mindshare is like comparing Apple to Motorola (not meant to be a diss to Motorola, I have a Motorola phone myself, just saying that Xbox has significantly less mindshare / brand power in Europe).
  • SIE is likely working on PSVR 2, this could be big.
  • Sony has a small stake in Epic Games (1.4%) and they have a good business relationship with them, so this might also make them open to release first-party games on Epic Games Store after exclusivity period on PS5.
  • Remember the Travis Scott concert in Fortnite? I believe that was one of the reasons why Sony invested in Epic Games. It serves as an example how music can sometimes converge with video games, and this can play to Sony’s strengths.
  • PlayStation also has way superior presence in Asia compared to Xbox. Have been expanding into China as well. Another great opportunity for revenue growth.
  • PS+ subscribers grew from 5.7 million by the end of 2013 to 46 million by October 30th, 2020. This is an average growth rate of 28% over the past 5 years. Considering most of the growth was early on, it will slow down, but I predict that they will have about 70 million PS+ subscribers by the end of 2023. This is huge and represents a stable, recurring source of income. Investors who keep hyping Netflix/Disney+ will love this, but it seems they have yet to discover $SNE.
  • There is a reason why Amazon, Google, Nvidia have been aggressively investing in video games & games streaming. They know the business is huge and is about to get even bigger. But considering the established, loyal PlayStation userbase, the established global brand of PlayStation and the exclusive games, PlayStation should be able to easily standoff competition from Amazon, Google and Nvidia (GeForce Now) in the next few years. So far, Amazon’s venture into game development, publishing & streaming has completely failed. Stadia and GeForceNow seem to have a bit more success, but still relatively niche. Therefore, I think PlayStation is well-positioned to remain one of the leaders in the industry for the following decade.
I'll get to the other divisions later, I figured this is a good first step.
But so far the tl;dr
Image sensors: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
IoT/Industry 4.0 chipsets: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
PS5/PSN/PS+: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Online medical services (M3 inc.): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Anime: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Fate/Grand Order: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Demon Slayer: Mugen Train 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Sony Music / music streaming (the performance of Sony Music’s in Sony’s business is seriously understated. The numbers speak for themselves): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Sony Electronics 🚀
Sony Financial Holdings (very stable & profitable business, even managed to grow slightly during pandemic when most insurance companies performed more poorly): 🚀🚀🚀
Still have to cover Sony Pictures, but their upcoming movie slate looks pretty good honestly (Spider-Man sequel, Venom: Let There Be Darkness, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Uncharted, Morbius, Hotel Transylvania 4 so that's worth one rocket as well imho 🚀
tl;dr of tl;dr:
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am an idiot that's trying to understand why $SNE stock is so cheap.
Positions: SNE 105C 21st January 22
submitted by Audacimmus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

FIRE. What it's like, how to get there.

1What retiring early is like

It's fucking great.
I wake up happy, I do pretty much whatever I want during the day, I go to sleep happy.
I indulge my limited passions and hobbies, I plunge down fascinating rabbit holes of knowledge, I bugger off to places for months at a time (harder with Brexit, you xenophobic malcontents), I spend time with people I want to. I feel smug.
I don't have an alarm waking me up, I don't need to take any shit off anyone, I don't burn 90 mins a day on a loud bus screeching stop announcements at 90db in my ear.
In the summer I sometimes pop over to the local greenery, have a pint and meal, read a book, soak up the sun. Great stuff.
My phone is always on silent. It can wait.
People occasionally ask me “what I do all day”. If your imagination is so limited, living in such an incredible time, with so much at your fingertips, that the question even crosses your mind, then carry on working and bitching about it, you don't know how to be happy.
“Scipio used to say that he was never less idle than when he had nothing to do “ - Cicero, On Duties.

2How to get there

2.1Difficulty modes

2.1.1Easy mode: Get free university education, get a good job, buy a cheap house

Not too difficult if you were born in 1972. Easy mode is now disabled in the UK. Maybe available in foreign versions of the game, such as in Greece or Denmark.

2.1.2Medium mode: Don't have kids

I swear to god, I have been pretty lucky not to accidentally father a crotch goblin, and believe me, little Goocho often vetoed my brain. Use contraceptives. Notice how all the shit hole countries don't give women control over their reproduction.
If I had foolishly crapped out a kid, I would have had to work another 10 years at least I reckon. Ugh.
Borrow kids to play with them, and return when they start crying.

2.1.3Hard mode: Have kids

Look, if you are spending 100k or whatever to raise a kid I don't know what to tell you, at least you got laid eh?
I hope you enjoy working like I didn't. Seriously, if you have a job you like, great stuff, things will be much easier for you. The impetus to leave it won't be so great. The point of all this is to be happy after all!

2.2Control your costs

Filling your house full of nonsense is consumerism at it's worst.
I practice a kind of minimalism. So I don't own a freezer, a cooker or a dish washing machine. Guess what? They will never need repairing or replacing! But I do own an amazing OLED tv, a solid speaker system, loads of films and books. Minimalism is a whole other subject, and attracts the mentally ill who take it to extremes. Spend money on a decent mattress you fools.
Subscriptions are death by a thousand cuts, and will weigh you down. However Netflix and Amazon Prime are great. Shades of grey.
Screw charities, charity workers get paid salaries and you are supposed to give for free? Nope. Begging scum. “it is only the price of a coffee”, bitch please, I pay 10p a cup for my lovely coffee.
Pay your taxes. Don't be a leech on society.
Live in a small house.
Aldi is great.
If you don't get married, you can't get ruinously divorced, .
Insurance is generally a scam, if you are drunkenly fucking up so regularly than you need your phone insured, sort your life out.
You really need that car? Hmmm. If you are driving to the supermarket and paying for the gym, you are an idiot. Those two cancel each other out.
Only unhappy people play the lottery.
Buy a decent phone for £200, pay £5 a month for service. You think iFruit users will look down upon you? Comparison is the thief of joy.
DIY accomplishments are mentally rewarding, great exercise and cheap – or you can throw money at a problem to make it go away, this is the point of money after all, we sell and buy time with it. Before I buy anything big, I ask myself, is this worth x days sitting in an office for​?
Spend your money how you like, I am not your mum.
Enjoy what you have.

2.3Plan a little

Write down (don't guess) how much you spend a month over a couple of years.
For investments, assume inflation cancels out general increase in non distributing equity value. This is all a rough guessing game anyway, don't pretend it isn't.
I think there are two ways to look at when you can stop working:

2.3.1Cash drawdown per month until death

If you assume you are going to die around 85 (actuarial tables available online), divide your cash + private pension wealth + state pension amount will pay you until age 85 by the number of months left to live, this tells you how much you can spend a month before you die. Sounds like enough? Investment appreciation means you might have more than that.

2.3.2Cash dividends per month

You have a lumpsum of wealth. Flexible uk pension rules means you no longer need to take the annuity gamble. 4% returns a year seems conservatively doable. Can you live on that? Means you die with a load of cash. Stash it in your silk lined coffin.

2.4Play it safe, but not too safe

Assume laws and taxes will change. Don't count too much on that state pension.
If the NHS falls ill itself, you might need some cash to go private. Good luck getting that hip surgery in the next 12 months post covid!
If the stock market takes a 10% dump, you must still sleep soundly. Don't live too close to the edge.
Assume and hope your parents will spend all their wealth on themselves, having a happy end of life in an old folks home. Points off as a human being for relying on your parent snuffing it for free money.
What if your body conks out and you start shitting yourself and have to pay 4k a month to be served Dickensian gruel in a nursing home? Trust in the societal safety net? Work another 5 years just in case? Keep a cyanide pill by the bed? Sell your house I guess? I'm rolling the dice on this one. Maybe dancing in VR and these 50 degree Victorian terrace stairs will keep me fit (or kill me).

2.5Personal Story

Went to Uni, got a Computering degree, got a job I liked, autistic-ally worked at it, got paid lots of money, bought a house at 26 for 48k, parents threw in 10k to get rid of me, paid off the mortgage in 30 months.
After 8 years in said job, started to dislike it, took 6 months off work. Worked another 2 years before I got made redundant, 15k for doing nothing? Yes please!
Worked about half the time from age 32 to 46 as Contractor scum, in jobs I generally disliked or eventually hated. Had 2-3 years between jobs. Snatching retirement chunks from the future. I figured, why leave retirement until I am too old to enjoy it? Took around 3 months to get a new job each time, I didn't care, I loved not working!
Played casino blackjack for a couple of years for ~8 hours a week, made £12k. Shuffling machines have stopped all that now, was bored of it anyway.
Decided at 40 I had better get a pension, threw money at it when working.
So at 46, when I walked out on the pathetic management at my last gig (FIS Birmingham, you see when you are retired, you really don't have to give a shit!), I had worked for a total of ~15 years, thoroughly enjoyed not working and was sick of working.
At 47 I realised maybe I don't actually need another job? Started paying real attention to my finances.
At 48, I have 110k cash & 140k pension = 250k. 4% a year dividends = 10k a year. I can live happily on that.
£800 a month is enough. I spent £350 a month in December and January, had a great time. Will get a PS5 when available, boiler is bound to break eventually. It all evens out.
My state pension fortells a sickly £117 per week. Meh. Forgive me for not factoring that in too much. Who knows where I will be in 20 years? Hopefully sleeping in late without an alarm clock.
submitted by Shoddy-Software6567 to LeanFireUK [link] [comments]

Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
submitted by jeromeBDpowell to SPACs [link] [comments]

Kim Zolciak — Gambling addiction

It’s a Saturday night in lockdown London and I have nothing better to do other than research some tea on our Bravo housewives and rewatch classic reruns of the Real Housewives of Atlanta (season 3 is HISTORY).
Kim Zolciak became the subject of my research (well, more like digging) and I noticed she was consistently linked to rumours of having a gambling addiction. Unfortunately, the Daily Mail seemed to be the only other source which obtained a detailed amount of information, primarily from Don’t Be Tardy S08E03 ‘Nirvana, Nevada’ (I can’t believe this show has 8 seasons?). I was curious, so I streamed the episode.
When the Biermann family first arrived on an RV road trip to Las Vegas, their suite was luxurious and spacious. Kim quickly went on to mention she’d barely be in the room because she knew she wouldn’t sleep and instead, spend all night long in the casino. Well, she was right.
Long story short, Kim shows all signs of having a severe gambling addiction. She sacrificed 11 hours of sleep (and it didn’t seem like a sufficient amount of time for her) choosing to stay up all night (from an RV road trip with her family to Las Vegas) switching from the gaming machines, poker, cards — anything that was gambling. Brielle didn’t get any sleep either and kept Kim company all night. In the show, Kim was seen throwing $100 in the machines repeatedly.
Kroy had a strict curfew of their RV to departure LV at 08:00 to visit the Grand Canyon. It was 07:58 and Kim’s eyes were hypnotised by the slot machines and she was snappy to anyone (Kroy) that reminded her that they’d have to leave soon. Understandably, he was getting frustrated. She referred to gambling as her ‘therapy’ and a ‘slice of heaven’. Kroy said he doesn’t know any therapist that would recommend 11 hours spent on an activity. Sources are saying she has spent about $250,000 on gambling and is therefore likely to be crippling in debt. Kim reportedly then went onto purchase thousand dollar scratch cards.
The producers asked Kim’s younger children (sorry, I don’t know their names but they seemed maybe age 5 and 8?) if they knew what Kim was doing. Her child responded ‘yes, it’s where she goes to get money.’
At the end of the episode, the producers also asked if Kim managed to win big — or leave empty handed. She hesitated and then said neither, she’s more or less the same in terms of her financial status. Kroy snorted and then Kim looked away from the camera and drank from a red cup.
Side note: Brielle questioned if a rock formation within the canyon was a volcano, to which her mother responded, “Just be pretty, honey.”
TL:DR: Kim a history of a gambling addiction and this is evident on S08E03 Don’t Be Tardy. I watched, so you don’t have to. She’s fixated on gambling and spent 11 hours with Brielle doing it, it’s her main focus of the trip to Las Vegas. Her husband is finding difficulty controlling her habits and she cannot balance her family time and her gambling time. It seems as if she lost more than she won and reportedly has a debt of $250,000.
EDIT: thank you so much for the award! 🤗❤️
submitted by theyellowscriptures to BravoRealHousewives [link] [comments]

Daily COVID-19 Report for Clark County - Wednesday, Feb 10th

Clark County COVID-19 positives as of Wednesday, Feb 10th:
220,204, ⬆️602 from 219,602 (2/9)
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16-day tracking estimates:
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Current
# COVID-19 in ICU:
# COVID-19 on ventilator:
# Staffed ICU beds inventory: 772 (2/9)
# Staffed inpatient beds inventory: 5179 (2/9) ⬇️19 from 5198 (2/8)
% Staffed beds occupied: 77% (2/9) ⬆️3 from 74% (2/8)
# Licensed inpatient beds inventory: 4686 (2/9)
% Licensed beds occupied: 86% (2/9) ⬆️6 from 82% (2/8)
# Ventilators available: 556 (2/9)
# Ventilators in use: 401 (2/9)
# Ventilators inventory: 957 (2/9)
Source (mid-Feb becomes weekly, every Thurs): https://nvha.net
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SNHD reports 94.6% (208,369, ⬆️849 from 207,520 (2/9)) of cases have recovered.
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SNHD weekly flu snapshot (1/24 thru 1/30):
Age / Deaths / Hospitalized
<46% area ER and urgent care visits were adults (age 18-44) for flu symptoms. Influenza A is the dominant strain.
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Total Hospitalized: 9394*, ⬆️53 from 9341 (2/9)
*Hospitalized excludes deaths
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Total Deaths: 3525, ⬆️16 from 3509 (2/9)
(2240 with underlying medical conditions)
Not mutually exclusive conditions:
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Positive Results Age Range Breakdown:
MIS-C Cases 48⬆️2
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School Cases (2/10)
Total: 836; Past 2wks: 80
Public: 463; 36
Private: 373; 44
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Hospitalized Age Range Breakdown:
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Deaths Age Range Breakdown:
Test result average turnaround time is 24- to 48-hours with UMC/SNHD sites. CVS is averaging 2 to 3+ days.
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Expect weekend delay in case reports. "Daily case counts reflect newly reported cases and may represent cases that were tested in the preceding days, which could significantly impact the count on days when a relatively large number of laboratory reports arrive in one day." SNHD confirmed they are not counting COVID-19 antibody positives into their COVID-19 positive case counts.
Majority of information is pulled from Southern Nevada Health District's COVID-19 dashboard and historical reports.
Our positives are under 1000/day, our recovery rate remains high (90+% range), our hospitalizations remain steady (under 500).
SNHD dashboard has new "Place of Possible Exposure" tab, listing cumulative and last 30 days cases in establishments.
Top 10 Places of Possible Exposure
(Last 30 days)
  1. Other (3643)
  2. Food establishment (2178)
  3. Work (1599)
  4. Grocery store (1534)
  5. Hotel/Motel (1120)
  6. Medical Facility (1120)
  7. Casino (824)
  8. School (383)
  9. Air travel (312)
  10. General store/shop (271)
Nevada Hospital Association 2/8 report states: Hospitalizations improved over the weekend. Case counts are below last week's peak. All trajectories are in decline. Hospital capacity are within capable occupancy rates. PPE, supplies, and equipment are in good conditions. Majority of hospitalized CV19+ are in the 50+ age groups.
Protect our vulnerable and continue to practice good hygiene habits, including wearing a mask to prevent asymptomatic spread as mandated by Governor Sisolak (onus is on businesses, which we want to keep open, but Metro will not enforce it; OSHA is responsible for mask enforcement by fining the business). To report a non-compliant business through the state, call (702) 486-9020.
Doctors are doing convalescent plasma therapy treatments and are seeking plasma donors to help those in need. One plasma donation can help five patients. Blood donors can get the antibodies testing done for free through Vitalant.
54 therapeutics are still underway to treat COVID-19 worldwide. US FDA emergency use authorized treatments are: Remdesivir, Dexamethaaone, Regeneron's antibody cocktail (REGEN-COV2), and Eli Lilly's antibody treatment: baricitinib - a combination of Veklury and the JAK inhibitor Olumiant.
Nevada is approved for the 24-hour test procedure. FDA approved a 30-minute and a 5-minute testing procedures. UNLV provides the main walk-in COVID-19 testing services. The first at-home testing kit was FDA approved on 5/15/2020.
If you live within a 1-mile range of the Wal-Mart on Craig Rd, you qualify for a drone-delivered test kit to your front or back door. This is while supplies last, if anyone has info that they stopped providing this, let me know.
Some testing sites require an appointment; some may need to be scheduled by your primary care physician or another authorized provider.
City Serve coordinates testing sites throughout the valley. Testing is only on Saturdays. Schedule a no-cost test here: https://cityservelv.org/
UMC, E7 Health and local laboratories are able to conduct FDA approved antibodies testing. Cost is normally $149+, but your insurance may reimburse you for the test. Check your coverage first. Vitalant/Universal Blood Services will do a free antibody test for any eligible donors.
UMC is able to process 4,000 tests per day. It is encouraged for anyone to be tested. Symptoms are no longer required. Appointment is preferred, walk-up testing is available.
UMC's testing sites are inside Stan Fulton Building and Cashman Field Center. They can do 1,200 tests per day, Tues-Sat 8am to 4pm. No symptoms, insurance, or citizenship required for testing; starting 1/11 requesting insurance coverage. Schedule an appointment online through UMC's website (www.umcsn.com). Sites are walk-in, appointment or walk-up. Both sites now use the self-nasal swab test kits. Families can be tested as one household together.
UMC's COVID-19 test guidelines:
Guidelines are to save test kits for those exhibiting symptoms.
See all testing locations on the SNHD website.
All CVS pharmacy drive-thru locations can also testing, no cost should be associated. Validate with your insurance. If no insurance, there should be no charge. Requires an appointment.
FDA officially grants emergency-use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (12/11/2020). Distribution of vaccine began (12/14/2020).
The first vaccine was tested 3/16/2020. More than 160 vaccine prototypes are being tested. Clinical trials of the vaccine were administered. Phase 1 & 2 of trial vaccines completed with positive antibody results. Phase 3 clinical trials started with 30k volunteers; test size of 3k vaccine trials in the UK have completed. Africa started their vaccine trials on 06/24/2020.
Of the 100+ vaccines submitted, 22 have made the cut to go through testing and final FDA approval phases (5/15/2020 briefing). The front runner vaccine conducted human trails (Phase 3 aka final stage). AstraZeneca has prepared to produce 2 billion doses. Pfizer claims their vaccine is more than 95% effective. Moderna vaccine claims about 94.5% effective. Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is 70% to 90% effective based on dosage program (single dose versus duo dose).
US government has been working with four vaccine manufacturers who have completed final phases of vaccine trials, all prepared for massive vaccine output.
Vaccine distribution has been revised two "lanes" for vaccination: Healthcare front line/essential workers and general population, with emphasis on health conditions. NV CV19 vaccine playbook v3.pdf
To sign up for vaccine notification when you're eligible: NV CV19 Vaccine Interest Form.
More info on where to get the vaccine.
Total doses administered: 366,333 (2/10)
Total doses received to distribute: 521,200 Source
Cashman Center and Las Vegas Convention Center are prepared to become vaccine mega centers, to distribute 40k to 45k shots per week (about 4k per day per site).
Regional vaccine pop-up sites will be throughout the valley to provide access to those wanting the vaccine. Visit SNHD site for eligibility and to book your appointment online.
Seniors who need assistance scheduling for their COVID-19 vaccine, call 1-800-401-0946, 8am to 8pm, 7 days a week.
Las Vegas Convention Center will be the main 2nd dose distribution center starting Tues., Feb. 2nd. Open Tues-Sat, Central Hall, for both Moderna & Pfizer. If you didn't receive a notification to get your 2nd dose, call (702) 759-0850 to make your 2nd dose appointment.
UMC's vaccine mega center will be at Encore, near the parking lot of their convention center area. They are prepared to distribute hundred per day according to the state guidelines. Appointment is required.
North Las Vegas residents 70 and older can visit VaxNLV.com to fill out a simple intake form to enroll for vaccinations. Enrollment for these seniors will be open until Friday evening. Immediately after, the City will begin pre-enrollment for the general public. Seniors ages 70 or older who would like a vaccine may also call (702) 342-8417 for additional assistance, though wait times may be significantly longer than using the online, mobile-friendly platform.
Remain mindful to give our medical community the ability to focus on those in need of their expertise to survive and combat the virus.
For Nevada COVID-19 metrics, with historical spreadsheet and graph data, visit: The Nevada Independent Coronavirus Tracking or check out the link in our side bar.
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