Casino Table Games That Have The Best Odds

I love Keyforge. I’ve been playing since it first released back in 2018 and still enjoy it immensely to this day. However, the game has, on occasion, been plagued by the odd problem. Though these issues have been mostly cleared up as of today thanks to some rule alterations and errata, during the game’s infancy – when players first got their hands on the game – one particular combo of cards became so incredibly degenerate that something needed to be done. This is the story of how that combo culminated in the most infamous grand finals that the game has ever seen.
The State of Play
Firstly, I should give some basic information on how the game is played. Keyforge is strictly a 2-player game in which, in order to win, you must forge 3 keys. Each key costs 6 ӕmber (pronounced ‘amber’), which you can gain through certain card bonuses, or by using creatures to perform the ‘reap’ action. If you have enough ӕmber at the start of your turn, you forge a key. There are other intricacies and various aspects of play, but to put it simply: play cards, get ӕmber, forge keys, be the first to forge 3 of them. Got that? Good.
The game has seen plenty of extremely powerful combos, including the likes of:
- GENKA: Martian Generosity and Key Abduction. Players can draw a large number of cards while also forging keys at a lowered cost.
- BRIG: Binate Rupture and Interdimensional Graft. Players can inflate both their own and their opponent’s ӕmber pool then immediately take any remaining ӕmber from their opponent after they forge a key.
- Gangernaut: Ganger Chieftain and Drummernaut. Provided the opponent has no creatures on the board, players can use these two creatures to generate a burst of 5 or 6 ӕmber depending on the situation.
However, none of these combos quite measure up to the nightmare that was LANS. But before I get to that, you’ll need to know some important aspects of Keyforge.
The World’s First Unique Deck Game
As opposed to just about every other card game in existence, Keyforge consists of absolutely no deckbuilding whatsoever. Rather than buying booster packs or singles to enhance a deck that you construct, the game is played using complete, pre-constructed decks that cannot be altered or mixed. While some players have experimented with deckbuilding and making cubes, instances such as these only exist as far as casual play with friends. The vast majority of players choose to play the game as intended.
Another thing to note is that every single Keyforge deck in the entire world is unique. That is, if you buy a deck, no other deck will ever have the same decklist. Each deck also comes with its own unique artwork on the backs of each card, and each deck has its own unique name printed on both the front and back of each card. (Some famously humorous names include The Boy Who Basically Headbutts Heaven and The Child Who Terribly Fears The Church) Suffice it to say, anyone who tries to mix and match cards from other decks can be found out very quickly, as any deviation from the card’s name, art and decklist (which must be shown to your opponent before each game) are easy indicators.
These aspects, from name to decklist to card backs, are all created using an algorithm that picks 3 houses (or factions) and distributes a range of 12 cards to each house, with distribution dependent on card rarity, from common to uncommon to rare and special rare.
Keyforge’s model garnered some mixed receptions, with some praising the game for its low barrier of entry and quick casual setup through sealed decks, while others lamented the inability to build decks and likened the game to a lootbox simulator. With the randomized nature of the game, many detractors assumed that the game would devolve into spending obscene amounts of money throwing away decks in search of ‘the one’, while many proponents of the game simply enjoyed the discovery and puzzle-solving aspect of trying to learn each deck, with the ability to find interesting matchups without the need to build decks for specific purposes.
The big question was: How could a game of random, decidedly suboptimal decks work at the most competitive level? How could you truly test a player’s skill and knowledge of the game if matchups can never be equal? The answer? Adaptive.
A Test of Skill
The adaptive format works as follows: The players play two games, the first using their own decks and the second using their opponent’s deck. If the same deck wins twice, players must then commence a bidding on chains. Chains are the game’s handicap system, which can be used to curb decks that have the advantage in a particular matchup. To put it simply, the more chains you have, the fewer cards you are allowed in your hand at any one time. (The standard hand size is 6) From 1-6 chains, you play with 1 fewer card in hand. From 7-12, you play with 2 fewer cards, right up to the 19-24 bracket, where you play with 4 fewer cards. That’s a hand size of only 2 cards!
The purpose of bidding on chains is for each player to deduce how much of a handicap they would be willing to take in order to play the stronger deck without putting themselves at a disadvantage. A chain is dropped at the end of each turn, meaning if you start out with 3 chains, after 3 turns you’ll be back up to a normal hand size. Each player takes turns bidding until one decides they aren’t willing to increase the bid, and the game starts with the handicap in place on the 'stronger' deck, while the 'weaker' deck simply plays as normal.
Most players consider the adaptive variants to be the truest test of skill at the competitive level. After all, playing an extremely powerful deck holds no advantage over playing an extremely weak deck. Even at the most lopsided of matchups, 24 chains (the maximum) would shut down a dominant deck’s momentum to an extreme level. Theoretically, you could buy only one deck in your entire life and still win adaptive tournaments, given the fact that Keyforge has no set rotation. Decks are legal forever, and aside from very specific events that require the use of certain sets, there are no restrictions as to which sets can play against which.
Surely then, the adaptive tournaments would be the best place to see the most nail-biting and skill intensive matches possible. Nobody could complain about degenerate decks dominating, right?
The Most Broken Combo of All Time
Enter the LANS combo, consisting of Library Access and Nepenthe Seed. LANS could allow you (with some setup) to draw your entire deck into your hand, play a bunch of cards, then cycle those cards back into your hand, then play more cards, then cycle them back…
Let’s break it down. Library Access sees you drawing a card every time you play a card. This on its own is a pretty powerful effect. Keyforge has no mana costs. The only limiting factor is that you can only play or use cards from the active house. In this case, since Library Access is a Logos card, you must only play or use Logos cards that turn. If you keep drawing Logos cards, you can keep playing them, but given that only one third of your deck consists of Logos, you’re bound to hit a wall eventually. Great card, but far from broken. Things get crazy, however, if you pair it with Nepenthe Seed. This is an artifact that allows you to return a card from your discard pile to your hand at any point of any turn you wish. Again, on its own Nepenthe Seed is an excellent card, but not broken. But if you put the two together, first playing Library Access and then using Nepenthe Seed’s ability to return Library Access back to your hand, by playing Library Access again, the effect stacks. Now for every card you play, you draw two cards. And if that already sounds scary enough, it gets worse.
Other Logos cards also include:
- Wild Wormhole: Gain an ӕmber, then play the top card of your deck. With LANS, this means playing Wild Wormhole, drawing two cards, then playing the top card of your deck and drawing another two cards.
- Timetraveller: Gains you an ӕmber on play, and also allows you to draw two cards, meaning with LANS you would draw four cards on play. Each Timetraveller also comes paired with a copy of Help From Future Self, meaning there are multiple ways to get hold of it.
- Mother: A creature that increases hand size, giving you greater opportunity to set the combo up.
- Library of Babble: An artifact that allows you to draw an additional card.
- Phase Shift: The most important piece of the puzzle. Phase Shift allows you to play one non-Logos card. This gives you ample opportunity to use the effects of other houses, and since you’ll likely be drawing up your entire deck, you’ll have all the choices in the world at your disposal. Just as with Library Access, the effect stacks. Using multiple copies of Phase Shift means you can play multiple non-Logos cards that turn.
Does that sound bad enough? Sorry, but it gets even worse than that. You see, unlike most other card games, when your deck pile is emptied in Keyforge, you simply reshuffle your discard pile to form your new deck. This means you can cycle back through your deck again. And play Library Access again. Now you’re drawing three cards for each card you play. And on and on it goes.
Now, this effect cannot go on indefinitely thanks to the Rule of Six. In simple terms, this means that any card (or card of the same name) cannot be played or used more than 6 times. LANS cannot carry on forever, but it can carry on for a very, very long time. Plus, even if the insanity does come to an end, you’ve now drawn pretty much your entire deck, ready to use it next turn. And while the combo does at least require some setup to ensure you get the most out of it, top players would optimize their play to all but ensure it.
I should point out that it was possible to prevent the combo from happening with cards that could either destroy or remove Nepenthe Seed from play. These included Remote Access, Poltergeist, Gorm of Omm, Nexus, Barehanded and Neutron Shark. That said, any deck that didn't have an answer (which was most of them) would be at the full mercy of LANS. And even if you did have an answer in your deck, an unlucky card draw could prevent you from ever using it. Many people outright despised LANS (and to a lesser extent, LART, which swapped Nepenthe Seed for Reverse Time, a card that required more setup for the combo but in turn couldn't be countered). For a game all about interesting and weird matchups with unexpected surprises, the idea of chasing a meta specifically to deal with LANS didn't sit well with many.
The insanity of this combo came to a head at Keyforge Vault Tour Illinois in April of 2019.
The Worst Grand Finals Ever
While you’re more than welcome to watch the entire footage of the grand finals (linked above), here’s some key details with timestamps:
Game 1:
Game occurs as normal until Library Access is played at 18:25. From here, the player cycles through his entire deck, using all manner of cards and counters to keep track of how many uses each card has seen. From there, all his opponent can really do is watch. He spends his time staring a hole into the table, card effects flying left and right, his stacked army of creatures being decimated, until finally, after eight minutes of inactivity, he concedes the game at 26:25, seeing no other way out of this hell.
Game 2:
Decks are swapped between players. Game plays normally until 36:17. Library Access is played and the player cycles through his deck, and again, playing cards continuously. After a grueling nineteen minutes of simply watching the madness unfold without being able to take his turn, at 55:15, his opponent concedes.
Game 3:
Time to bid for chains! Now, you’d think this would be where the LANS deck gets hit with a massive set of chains, stopping it from doing its thing. Right? WRONG. The opposing player chooses not to bid on the LANS deck, allowing the LANS owner to play it with zero chains. Word has it that he still believed his deck had a good chance at outracing his opponent before LANS could be activated, but no such thing happened. At 59:36, Library Access is played. At 1:13:50, the game is over, 3 keys to 0.
Community Response
As expected, this did not go over well with Keyforge fans. (See YouTube comments) “Stupid combo... much worse than exodia,” writes one commenter. “People bringing LANS decks to tournaments should be ashamed of themselves,” wrote another. “LANS: definition of "not fun tournaments", ladies and gents!”
While there were a small minority of players who wished for the game to remain as it was, many saw LANS as a scourge upon the earth and wanted changes to be made. LANS simply wasn't fun for either player when pulled off, but due to its sheer power, LANS decks were highly sought after. The problem was, given the fact Keyforge revolves around opening pre-made decks, individual cards cannot be banned, and the alternative of banning specific decks would set a terrible precedent for the game.
Thankfully, a decision was made that satisfied most. On 29th of May 2019 Fantasy Flight Games announced some important errata which included the rule that upon playing Library Access, the card would be purged instead of hitting the discard pile. Much like the term ‘exile’ in Magic: The Gathering, when a card is purged it is removed from play entirely, making it impossible to return to your hand through Nepenthe Seed. Panic over, and people could play the game in peace again.
While the card is once again balanced, many still remember the horrors of Library Access in the game’s early days. Being able to draw your entire deck into your hand and continue cycling through? Why, it had to be the most broken card in Keyforge history!
Except it wasn’t.
Believe it or not, Library Access was generally considered only the second best card in the game at the time. That’s right; another card existed that even Library Access couldn’t stand up to. A card so brutal and terrifying that it utterly dominated the meta. A card that, by itself, with no card required to combo with it, made players shiver and quake with terror. “But how can that be?” you might ask. “After everything I’ve read, the ridiculous combo potential of LANS, how can any card possibly be better than the broken mess that was Library Access!?”
Well… as Old Bruno would say, it’s a heckuva deal.
Perhaps that’s a story for another time. Please let me know if you enjoyed reading this, as I have a number of Keyforge stories to tell! 😊
EDIT: Wow! I'm shocked my post garnered so much attention! I only found out about this sub a few days ago! Thanks to all of you for reading!
Lots of people clamoring for information on the broken card that I teased at the end. I'll definitely have to start work on that one at some point, even if I'm not sure when I'll have the spare time to write it. I have a number of ideas for topics, and with the fifth set due out next month, who knows? Maybe something else will come up that's worth talking about.
Like that recently revealed trojan horse artifact... I hope the designers know what they're doing with that one! O_O

Fixing DM burnout isn't (always) as simple as taking a break. Diagnosing what's causing the burnout is important.

My uncle left me a shifty little bar in his will. The employees here sleep in the backroom.

My uncle was an odd, lonely man. That one guy you try to avoid at family reunions, the one nobody knows too well but loves to talk about nonetheless.
I think he liked me best because I never really enjoyed badmouthing him. I wouldn't say we were close, but we tolerated one another. At least that's how it was when I was little, we never bothered to stay in contact. I forgot about him by the time I left home. That's why the news of his death caught me completely by surprise.
Uncle Mack was alone in his apartment when he had a heart attack causing cardiac arrest. He fell unconscious and died within minutes.
Then there was me at the time. I had just flunked out of college and the only thing I was actually good at was playing video games. When I was contacted by Mack's lawyer, I was even more shocked. Mack had left me three things: a box of sorted letters addressed to me, all the money he used to own, which to me was a lot, and his bar–the one he had inherited from his father and had worked at all his life.
I'll be frank, I had no idea what to do with the bar but I knew from the very start I'd take it over. I felt kind of honored–this had basically been Uncle Mack's entire life and he was giving it to me of all people. Sure, from what I knew there hadn't been many friends or loved ones in his life to choose from, but it was still flattering to me. Once I read the first letter, I was even more convinced.
"Hi Giulia,
If you're reading this, my bad eating habits have probably caught up to me. Or maybe someone killed me, who knows. As of me writing this, you're fifteen years old. You were the only one to talk to me at the family reunion today. Not for long, but more than just an awkward hello. I notice these things and I appreciate it. That's why I'm trusting you with the most important task anyone in this family is ever going to offer you. You are going to take over my bar. Besides, knowing you, you're not gonna have much of a career anyways, so you might as well.
Once you're done reading this, please go to the bar at your earliest convenience. Take the box of letters with you and stash it away somewhere there. It has some valuable advice you're gonna need down the line. In fact, you will need to read the second letter right after your arrival. You'll find my employees are a bit special.
Anyways, I hope you're doing alright, however this letter finds you. You're a good kid, Lia. Always have been. Besides, the only person you could possibly disappoint by screwing this up is dead so there's no pressure to impress.
Sincerely, Your Uncle Mack."
I wiped my eyes. They had actually gotten a bit watery while I was reading the letter. I folded the letter and tucked it back into the box before grabbing my coat and bag. Mack's bar was a train ride and a thirty-minute walk away from my parents' place, which is where I was residing at the moment. I figured I would probably have to look for a place close to the bar if I really would start working there full time.
When I finally arrived at the establishment, it looked almost exactly the way I had expected. It was just another wall in the row of buildings on the street off to the side from the inner city's market square. A large, bright red double door with a neon sign reading "The New Saloon" above it. It would probably glow if I'd find out how to switch it on. At least I hoped it would glow.
It felt weird, unlocking the door and opening it for the first time, all on my own. Entering and looking around inside felt even weirder. The New Saloon was your typical old-style dive bar. Even completely empty it looked overcrowded. The fabric of the cushion seats was stained and frayed, the walls behind and in front of the counter were plastered with neon beer signs and large framed photos of people I didn't know, some were even in black and white. The floors were dirty and my heels stuck to them when I walked further in. This place was small, shabby and smelly and I loved it.
It was so strange but I suddenly just felt like this bar was mine, and that I needed to take care of it and protect it. Remembering what Mack had told me in his first letter, I pulled the second one out from the box and unfolded it.
"Hi Giulia,
If you're reading this, you're probably at the bar for the very first time! How do you like it? Let me guess, it's ugly and gross but it instantly started growing on you?
Don't worry, it's about to get a lot weirder. You'll find the entrance to the backroom behind the counter. The lightswitch is on the inside of the wall, make sure to turn it on before you head inside because there's stairs leading down right behind the door. It's a death trap. Once you're in there, stand in the middle of the room. Stay away from the walls. You may then say out loud the following words:
Spirits of this house, by the power of the spell that has bound you I command you to serve.
You'll see what happens next. Whatever happens, keep in mind you can order them around. When all the work is done, simply tell them to go back into their room. You've got this.
Sincerely, Your Uncle Mack."
I frowned. That was odd. Was this the prelude to some kind of joke? I walked over to the door behind the counter and pressed down the handle. It swung open with a loud creaking noise and I began to grope around for the lightswitch. A single light bulb down in the backroom came flickering on and I proceeded down the rickety wooden stairs. No bannisters. Risky, especially with the shoes I was wearing. By the time I had reached the middle of the room, my heart was already beating faster than it should. Still, if this was a prank, Mack had been planning it for over five years, and I was not about to ruin it. Besides, no one was watching anyways.
I cleared my throat. "Spirits of this house…" I began, a giggle swinging along in my voice. "By the power of the spell that has bound you I command you to serve."
Nothing. Not a single sound for five whole seconds. I looked around the room. It was completely empty, except for a single door in the wall across from me. Maybe I had been supposed to say it in whatever room was behind that one? Just as I was about to walk over to it, a loud noise came from one of the walls to the side. I spun around to find that it had cracked open. Bits of it were beginning to crumble to the floor as the tear widened. I stared at it with my mouth agape, frozen in place and incapable of comprehending what I was seeing there.
From the crack, a set of long, bony pale fingers reached out into the room, gripping the inside of the wall. My throat was too dry to produce a proper scream, but I couldn't contain a gasp as I staggered backwards until my back met with the other wall behind me. It was then that I felt cold palms rubbing against my neck and hands closing around my shoulders from behind. This time, I shrieked. I whirled around again only to see that there was a hole there too, long, skinny arms slowly moving forward from it, grabbing at me, searching for me.
I glanced around the room frantically. Holes had opened in basically every spare spot. I counted four sets of arms pulling themselves out into the light, followed by similarly slender upper bodies. By the time I finally thought to run back up the stairs and save myself, the people from inside the walls were standing in the backroom, fully emerged from their dark hideouts. I didn't risk another look at them. When I finally reached the top stair, I dashed back into the bar and slammed the door shut behind me. I pressed myself up against it just to keep standing. My knees had grown weak beneath me and I was panting heavily, my mind racing.
Then I heard them; slow, light footsteps making their way up the staircase and stop on top of it. I heard calm, steady breathing coming from the other side of the door. I tensed up and shifted my weight on my feet, leaning up against it to keep whomever was in there from getting out. I was sure this person would start to try pushing it open, but to my surprise, nothing happened. Instead, a voice rang out from inside.
"Excuse me, who are you exactly?" It was a man's voice. I had expected something like a growl, or a hiss, or the groans of some decomposing zombie, but this was distinctly more articulate. It sounded almost polite.
I didn't know what to do other than respond. "Giulia," I stammered.
"Giulia?" The man sounded surprised. "What about Mack? Wait, if you're here…" He sounded quite sad now. "Mack's dead, isn't he?"
"Yes," I replied quietly. "His heart stopped."
"That's… good God." He fell silent and I heard him utter a shaky sigh, almost like a sob. "I'm sorry, would you give me a moment? I need to tell the others."
"Go ahead," I murmured.
"Nevermind, they heard us. So, will you let us out now or…?"
"Who are you? Why were you in there?"
"We work here, actually. My name is Andrik… I do most of the organizing here. I take care of the accounting, our profits, our spendings; I place the orders on most of what we need. Back here with me, I've got Bo, who is our bouncer, and Danika and May, both waitresses."
"You work here?" I repeated. "And you live in the walls? After your shift is over, do you just go down there and melt into the room or what?" I couldn't help but let out a nervous chuckle at the mental image. This was just too absurd. At least I was breathing normally now.
"Pretty much, yes."
I shook my head. "What are you?"
"Well, to explain that you would have to go exactly a hundred and twenty-two years back so it's a long story," Andrik replied. "All you need to know for now is that if you let us out, we'll get the bar up and running right away. We've been working under Mack ever since he took over this place though, so you'll have to excuse us if we're a bit gloomy."
"No, that's fine," I muttered, slowly turning away from the door and carefully pulling it open.
The man in front of me was of normal height, slender and looked to be in his thirties. Despite being dressed in jeans and a simple black t-shirt with the bar's name printed on it in white, swirly letters, he had a very official look to him. Maybe it was the way he stood, straight as a rod with a friendly yet matter-of-fact smile on his face.
"Thank you," he said. Turning back to the room, he raised his voice. "You heard it everyone, Mack might be gone and while that's a downer, our work isn't over; so get yourselves up here and let's get this going again!" His tone carried the flat motivation the coach of a youth sports team might have.
Three more people emerged from the backroom, all dressed exactly like Andrik, all of them that same content little grin on their lips. They walked by me offering polite greetings; the first one, a large, bulky guy giving me a curt nod and the two women that followed smiling brightly. The girls were a little younger than Andrik, maybe in their late twenties. Both had blond hair hanging down their shoulders in wavy pigtails.
That first night the bar was open, I merely watched the backroom people work, following them around while they ignored me. It was eerie. They looked almost like automated mannequins, going about their routine by sticking to preplanned paths; like there were set directions painted somewhere I couldn't see. I soon began to notice other distinctive attributes about them. None of the people from the walls had fingernails. I saw it on the waitresses when they reached for the cups handed to them, on Andrik when he scribbled down notes. However that was not the only thing off about them. All those little details in their faces, the kind of thing you'd normally never pay attention to–they didn't add up.
For example, their eyes didn't lign up. One was always slightly lower than the other, just enough for someone to notice. Their nostrils would differ in width and one of the girls' pinky fingers was the same length as her ring finger. Had I not known that they had just crawled out from the backroom walls, I would have chalked these harmless little oddities up to simple, inconspicuous deformities, but knowing what I knew, it made my skin crawl with uncomfort.
I soon found out that Andrik did most of the talking for them. Bo rarely ever said a word, and all the waitresses did was whisper amongst themselves, giggle and chat with the patrons. Eventually, Andrik waved me over to him behind the counter.
"Alright, to give you a rundown of the place, we have a cash-only system. We rely on our local clientele, but once in a while someone new comes by and then we try and keep them around, obviously. Here's some of our regulars." He pointed at a lady sitting in a corner, weeping over an empty glass of whiskey. "That's Shauna. Comes here whenever she can, only ever orders whiskey. Will not stop crying."
His finger wandered over to an old, short man with an almost disproportionately large head and short white hair. He was sitting at one of the tables as well, talking to two younger women who seemed very much out of place. "That's Tommy. He's likely to start fights but he drinks a lot and tips very generously. Bo throws him out a lot but he's very easy on him, so don't worry."
He finally nodded towards a tall glass of wine standing lonely on the counter right in front of us. "And this is Irene. She can't pay but she's always welcome. She's very nice and she's been here ever since Mack's family started this business."
"Andrik, there's nothing there."
The pale man threw me a confused glance. "What do you mean, she's right… oh! Of course. Don't worry, you'll start seeing her with time. Either way, for now there's actually not much for you to do except read up on barkeeping once you get the chance. However you should start getting acquainted with the regulars. After all, the owner of The New Saloon will always be part of the reason why people come here." He paused as his mouth started to twitch into an almost guileful grin. "I have a feeling they're going to love you."
I retreated into the ladies' room for a quick break. I sat down on one of the toilets and buried my face in my palms. I had no idea what was going on or what I was supposed to do. Andrik had made himself pretty clear when it came to the instructions he'd given me, but all of this was so surreal I seriously considered the possibility of me having suffered some kind of blow to the head and dreaming it. I spent the rest of the night standing behind the counter and observing their every move. Andrik kept to my side mostly, looking at me with the kind of suspicion I probably had in my eyes as well. I couldn't figure him out.
I accidentally-on-purpose walked by the waitresses who were talking to each other in hushed voices, picking up on small bits of their conversation.
"Her blood is weaker than his. Do you think she's–?"
"We shouldn't take any chances. Remember what Mack did when we tried to test him?"
"I do, but this could be our chance to have some fun."
Her words sent chills down my spine. Remembering Mack's letter however, I decided this was not the time to show I was frightened. "You're going to do no such thing," I chimed in from behind them. "I don't care what you are but I promise I'll find a way to make this whole thing very uncomfortable for you guys if you try to pull any kind of weird crap on me."
The looks they gave me were worth my initial doubt. They seemed shocked that I had listened in on them at all, let alone spoken up. I glared at them, holding their gaze and ignoring the trembling of my legs. Their heads lowered, they marched off. When the bar began to clear out and we got ready to close down for the night, I told the four of them to clean up. Of course I helped, but I made sure never to lose sight of a single one of them. I felt like they were wild, hungry animals, waiting for their chance to pounce on me. Whenever I looked up from the rag I was wiping the countertop with, I would find one of them staring at me.
By the time we were done, the place really did look a lot more welcoming. It certainly was cleaner, despite the four workers' angry faces spoiling the mood. We carried the cleaning supplies back into the small storage chamber next to the employee restroom before I went to open the backroom door for them. "Okay everyone, good job today! Thanks a lot, now back inside!" I called out, almost enjoying the feeling of authority as they came trodding towards me and made their way down into the dimly lit basement single-file. Andrik was the last one to cross the threshold. Right before descending the staircase, he turned to face me once more.
"You were keeping a close eye on us," he said quietly. "That's clever. But you're going to need to keep it up and… let's see how long you'll last. Who knows what might happen." He gave me a sly wink with the one eye that was a little lower on his face before following his co-workers. I watched from the top of the stairs as they leaned up against the walls. It was almost as I had expected; their bodies seemed to melt into the holes they had come from, sealing them shut and not leaving so much as a thin crack.
Lacking a better option, I stayed at a nearby inn that night. As bizarre and frightening as all of this had been, I got out of it unscathed. The bar workers and I would end up coming to blows in the future though, more than once. And I wouldn't always be that lucky.
X
Part 2: one of the regulars had a doppelgänger
Part 3: My bouncer and I got beaten up by a little girl.
Part 4: The regular who never stops crying.
Part 5: Appreciate good employees.

An old guy hired me to manage his life-sized dollhouse, but some of the occupants are starting to freak me out

The ad was bizarre but straightforward enough.
Late fifties male seeks woman in twenties to manage large-scale dollhouse

Candidate needs to maintain a household of eleven Real Dolls by tending to the daily wardrobe, grooming, and other needs of the dolls.
Nothing inappropriate.
$250 paid in cash at the end of every shift.

A lot of women would be put off by that ad, but not me. Let’s just say, I’ve seen some shit in my life. I was finally starting to dig myself out of a trash pile of childhood trauma by getting into a good college, when the reality of tuition fees set in. I needed a part-time job to stay afloat, and creepy sex doll man would have to be it.
I tried calling the number on the ad, but nobody picked up. A few minutes later I got a text asking my name, age, and times of availability. Another text later, I was asked to start at nine the following day. I was surprised at the ease of the interview, if you could even call it that, but I didn’t feel like questioning it. Whatever the guy’s deal was, that was his business, not mine. As long as he didn’t breach any boundaries and paid me on time, we’d get along just fine.
I wasn’t stupid, though. I called my cousin Ronnie and told him what was going on and where I’d be the next day. Ronnie sighed but didn’t question my decision. We grew up with the same shitty guardians, and he knew I could handle myself.
“Just be careful, Lu,” he said at the end of the call, “pack the bag, okay?”
“Of course, Ronnie,” I smiled into the phone, “I’ll be in touch if anything happens.”
‘The bag’ was a backpack of essentials for any kid that was unfortunate enough to grow up in a neighborhood like mine. My bag contained pepper spray, a swiss army knife, drinking water, a couple of protein bars, and a cheap disposable phone with Ronnie’s number saved in contacts. I hoped for the best but prepared for the worst. Always.
I was at the given address at exactly 9 o’clock the next morning.
The house was breathtaking. A tall, asymmetrical two-story with whitewash walls and a multifaceted roof. The windows were different sizes and shapes, the panes a charming baby blue with glass that sparkled like morning dew on grass. I walked up the cobblestone path, admiring the clean-cut lawn and tulip flower beds that lined the perimeter.
Maybe this won’t be so bad, I thought, climbing the porch steps.
I couldn’t find a doorbell, only a large bronze knocker designed to look like some sort of horned creature, possibly a bull. It was as though the sculptor had chosen to make the beast in man’s image, the result being a grotesque blend of the two. I banged the knocker three times and waited. Nothing happened. I tried again. No one came to the door. I pulled my phone from my back pocket just as it received a message from the Craigslist number.
Go inside. The girls are on the second floor.
Whatever you’re into, buddy, I thought as I pulled the door open and stepped inside.
The entrance hall was everything the exterior suggested. Polished hardwood floors shimmered like glaciers on a sunny day. A needlessly large chandelier descended from somewhere far above my head. Quaint antique hall cupboards and paintings of flower pots tied the look together. It was all meant to be quite lovely but something felt off. The interior seemed almost too precise, as though crafted after the idea of an old Victorian home. The passing of time generally implied a dash of ruggedness, and this place had none.
A large-scale dollhouse, I thought, remembering the ad with a slight shudder.
I clutched at the straps of my backpack, straining to hear any hint of life within the house. There was only the slight echo of my sneakers scraping across the floor as I crossed the hall on my way to the grand staircase.
I lingered before taking the first step. It wasn’t too late to turn around and find something less creepy to do. Sure, the pay was excellent, but my gut was telling me there was something very wrong with the house. Determination and a hint of curiosity argued with my better instincts and won.
I walked up the carpeted steps.
“Hello?” I called upon reaching the second floor. No answer.
To my left, a door stood open, revealing an old-school parlor room. I stalled before entering, realizing that the distant concept of eleven life-sized dolls had been far more agreeable than the actual sight of them.
What can I say? The dolls were exquisite in a vacant, detached sort of way. Someone had dressed them in a variety of colorful nightgowns and bathrobes. Some faced windows, others were seated around a coffee table. All were positioned in poses that were meant to look natural. Their size was that of your basic, petite woman, with some evident variation in the hip and breast departments. There were blondes with blue eyes, sultry brunettes, a redhead, African Americans, Asians, you name it. One even had rainbow-colored hair and blue lips.
“Louisa,” a soft voice interrupted my doll-induced trance.
My right hand instantly went for the pepper spray as I whirled around in one swift, jumpy motion.
“Jesus,” I muttered, slipping the spray back in place, “You scared me, lady.”
The owner of the voice was a tall, thin woman well into her fifties. She wore a long, red cardigan that she buttoned over a lilac turtleneck and a full-length, plaid skirt. The entire outfit was so hideous that I barely even registered the fact that the woman herself was attractive for her age. She had a very dignified sort of face, with a dainty nose and knowledgeable eyes. A good amount of thick, greying hair was tied back in a low ponytail.
“My apologies, Lousia,” the woman smiled politely, “I didn’t mean to scare you.”
“It’s Lu actually,” I mumbled, trying to compose myself.
“Nice to meet you, Lu,” the woman’s smile held, though her gaze sharpened, “My name is Mrs. Claymore and I am the mistress of Vanderley House.”
“First time I’ve been in a house with a name,” I replied, watching her face. Much like my surroundings, the woman carried herself in a manner of welcome, but it all felt a bit scripted.
“I believe my husband has given you the general gist of your duties here at Vanderley?”
“Well,” I surveyed the kinky mannequins lounging around the room, “The text messages mentioned I would have to watch the dolls.”
“Yes,” she spoke slowly as though addressing a small child, “You will be acting as the part-time manager of the household. In essence, you will be filling my shoes while I’m away.”
“I see,” I nodded, feeling uneasy.
For the next hour or so Mrs. Claymore took me around the house, showing me the different rooms and explaining my increasingly bizarre work tasks. Every morning, I was to change ‘the girls’ into their daytime outfits and carry them around the house, setting them up at their respective activities. I would learn the dolls’ names and activities from a chart. My shift would end around the time the so-called hygienist showed up to perform cleaning procedures on the dolls.
“If all that is clear,” Mrs. Claymore concluded, “I will leave you to your job.”
“Alright,” I nodded, struggling with my apprehensive feelings.
I let out a long breath as soon as Mrs. Claymore retreated downstairs. If ever there was a master at not asking questions, it was me. And yet, I had so many. Everything about Mrs. Claymore indicated that she was an intelligent, proper sort of woman, and I just couldn’t reconcile that image with the things she was saying. Was she unhinged? I half wished the husband had met me instead. A creepy old man with a sex doll fetish, while super gross, was something that I could understand and even turn a blind eye to. For the right amount of money, of course. But this? What the hell was this?
Walking back to the parlor room, I felt my resolve strengthen. Late morning sunshine spilled in through the sheer curtains, illuminating the dolls in a cool, gray light. Not a single speck of dust could be seen in the rays. The dead eyes of the dolls reflected my mood.
I studied the clipboard Mrs. Claymore had given me. It contained the aforementioned doll chart printed on a crisp, expensive-looking sheet of paper. Cynthia was the first doll on the list. With a flicker of dread, I stared at the tiny picture printed on the page. The photograph, while small and a little blurry, was clearly of a real person, not a doll. It showed a pretty redhead somewhere outside, with locks of hair lifted by a gust of wind.
I scanned the room, quickly locating Cynthia in a nearby armchair. The resemblance to the person in the picture was uncanny. I walked up to the doll and stared at her face, reaching out a hand to graze a cheek with my fingers. She was definitely a doll, not a person. Even so, the fact that her image was molded after a human being felt all sorts of wrong. I turned my attention back to the chart:

Cynthia - 21 y.o. - 5′7″/122lbs. - Biochemistry student - Plays violin - 11:00 AM violin lesson in drawing room - 12:30 quiet reading time in study;

What an oddly specific type of girl. Hardly your average boner inducer. Scanning the other five entries on the page disturbed me more than I could say.

Valeria - 20 y.o. - 5′7″ / 107 lbs - Athlete - Ballroom dancer - 11:00 AM dance lesson in drawing room - 12:30 yoga in downstairs hallway;
Gina - 22 y.o. - 5′6″ / 121 lbs - Barista - Cat lover - 11:00 disciplinary session in entrance hall - 12:30 quiet reading time in study;
Katryn - 25 y.o. - 5′5″ / 115 lbs - Nurse - Enjoys video games - 11:00 AM - dance lesson in drawing room - 12:30 yoga in downstairs hallway;
Angelique - 21 y.o. - 5′7″ / 135 lbs - Unemployed - Recreational drug user - 11:00 AM - double disciplinary session;
Madison - 28 y.o. - 5′6″ / 118lbs - Daycare teacher - Enjoys reading - 11:00 AM - dance lesson in drawing room - 12:30 quiet reading time in study;

My hands trembled as I finished reading the last entry on the page. There have been so many times in my life where I have felt helpless and afraid. While horrible, each instance had an identifiable source of danger. A drunken uncle, an abusive social worker, a school bully. It was easy to work through fear when you knew what to expect.
The place had me stumped. There was something very wrong about it, about Mrs. Claymore and her yet-to-be-seen husband. About the dolls that were meant to look like real people. I knew then that I should leave, but there was a part of me that didn’t want to. Call me the collector of evils, but I just had to know what sort of fucked up darkness lurked the serene halls of Vanderley House.
I left the parlor and located the closet, a room on the second floor which was dedicated to all eleven doll wardrobes. I’d caught a glimpse of it during the walkthrough, but didn’t get a chance to take it all in.
It was the size of a bedroom, with shelves of shoes, folded clothes, and hanging garments lining the walls to my left and right. The other end of the room consisted of a mirror wall. I stared at my small frame reflected in four distinct angles. A couple of jet-black curls fell loose from my ponytail and I tucked them behind an ear. I looked very pale, not unlike a doll myself. That thought sent a visible shiver through my reflection.
The shelves of the closet were an obsessive-compulsive dream come to life. Everything was sorted by clothing type and color. The chart hadn’t specified what the dolls should wear, so I trusted my better judgment in picking the outfits. There were few modern garments available, but there was a large variety of basics that would look decent on most people. I pulled some items from the shelves and went to pick out the shoes. Not many options there either, mostly pumps. I was about to head back to the parlor when another glance at the mirrors revealed a detail I had very nearly missed.
Though three of the full-length mirrors were visibly nailed to the wall, the one on the far right had no bolts in the corners of the frame. I tried wedging my fingers in the small crack between mirrors and pulling it, but that yielded nothing. After a second’s thought, I tried pushing instead and the hidden door popped open.
Inside was the first hint of the real Vanderley.
The mirror concealed a small, dusty room. A bare lightbulb dangled from a wire, revealing unfinished concrete walls and stacks of moving boxes. I approached the nearest box and looked inside. It was filled with clothes, but they were nothing like the garments in the outer closet. These were trendy crop tops, boy shorts, cocktail dresses.
A lump formed in my throat.
I opened more, finding high heels, hoodies, sunglasses, watches, trinkets. I had to stop myself then. There were a lot of boxes and I didn’t have time to ransack the place. Mrs. Claymore could find me at any moment, and I needed more proof of my growing suspicions.
I walked out to the front closet, closing the mirror door behind me. I did my best to wipe away the fingerprints that revealed my intrusion. I reached for the phone in my back pocket so I could call Ronnie, and found that it was missing.
Of course, I thought, reaching for the hidden zipper on the inner side of my backpack. I powered on the flip phone and auto dialed Ronnie. He picked up on the first ring.
“Code red,” I whispered into the passé gadget.
“I fucking knew it, Lu,” Ronnie reprimanded, “I’ll be there in forty, an hour tops. Keep safe.”
“Will do,” I promised, replacing the cell before picking up the pile of clothes I’d selected for the dolls.
Mrs. Claymore must have fished my phone out of my back jean pocket at some point during the walkthrough, but why? Was it to snoop on me, mess with me, potentially cause me harm? None of the answers quite fit the bill, but I had a feeling I would learn the truth soon enough.
I made sure to keep calm as I walked back to the parlor room. There was no use for panic, I needed to keep my thoughts clear. I set down the pile of clothes on the coffee table and approached Cynthia. I lifted her arms and pulled her nightgown off. Putting her arms back at her side, I took a step back and surveyed the dolls’ body.
There was no doubt in my mind that Cynthia was molded after a living, breathing young woman. While her body held true to the beauty standards of today, it was not perfect. Her large breasts hung low without the support of a push-up bra and there was a birthmark to the right of her bellybutton. Again, I felt the need to reach out and feel her, to make sure that she wasn’t alive. I placed my hand on her lean stomach. She felt plastic as ever. Room temperature, high-grade silicone, and yet.
There was an energy.
I’d had that feeling before in museums, on school trips where I snuck away from the crowd and stared at some old army general’s chair, or an early telephone set. I thought it was common, getting vibes from items, but Ronnie told me it wasn’t. I didn’t dwell on it much. To me, objects carried stories, just like people did.
So what was Cynthia’s?
I placed my other hand in her palm and an overwhelming sense of sorrow erupted inside me. The force of it made me fall to the floor, laying my head on Cynthia’s knees. I didn’t let go of her, I couldn’t. The doll was telling me her truth. One so awful that my limited imagination could only produce it in dull aches that ran through my body. The grief was insurmountable, and I let it flow through the both of us.
“What did they do to you?” I asked, choking back tears.
There was no reply as the immense darkness receded into heavy but manageable despair. It was then that I noticed the small tattoo on Cynthia’s inner left wrist. It was a black stencil of the bull-man I had seen on the entrance door of the Vanderley House.
I couldn’t waste time. I had to gather as much information as possible before Ronnie showed up.
I got up and started checking all the other dolls. Every one of them had the same tattoo. I picked up the doll chart, now fully convinced it was a list of victims. I needed to learn as much about them in the short amount of time I had left.
Cynthia. Valeria. Gina. Katryn. Angelique. Madison. They were all here. Each headshot contained a girl outside, not a doll. They were REAL, but were they alive?
I felt my breath falter as nausea threatened the scant contents of my breakfast. There were only six girls on this page. The truth hit me like a punch to the face as eleven sets of dead eyes stared at me. The link I always suspected, but couldn’t prove.
Until now.
With shaky hands, I unclipped the piece of paper and flipped it over. There were six more entries on the back, but my eyes instantly went to the last one on the page. Right there, beside a tiny, pixelated photograph of me standing outside Vanderley House that very morning, I read the following:

Louisa - 20 y.o. - 5′4″/115 lbs - ex tenebris lux - ex malo bonum - 11:00 AM - The Hygienist

A door slammed downstairs, and though I wished with all my being that it was Ronnie arriving early to get me out of this mess, the large Roman numeral clock on the wall of the parlor told me that it was far too soon to get my hopes up.
Heavy footfall ascended the stairs in a slow, confident stride. Echoes of the intruder carried through the house and into the parlor. I picked up the pepper spray and rummaged around my backpack for the swiss army knife. I slipped the spray in my back pocket and held the knife on the inside of my palm so it was out of view.
It was time for my appointment with the hygienist.
READ PART 2 HERE
^{This is part 1 |} ^{part 2} ^| ^{part 3} ^| ^{part 4}

"Mindmed Forecast/Fundamental Case" [BULLISH] {MMEDF}

The original author's account was deleted, so unfortunately I can't credit them. Regardless, full credit to them. This post was included in the deletion, so it took a decent amount of digging to find and save. Shoutout to u/adamfixeseverything. Enjoy. -

Hey guys,
I thought I’d post about my thoughts on MMED. First of all, please do your own due diligence and do not fall victim to the pump, hype and euphoria. These are highly speculative investments and have significant risk associated. All that said, there have been many requests for fundamental analysis and MMED projections so I wanted to provide my thoughts.
*All figures in USD (market cap, sales) except for my investment holdings. I purchased MMED.NE shares. Source data available as well, but got messy with all the 10-k filings and links in the table.
Entry Point
First and foremost, I want to address the most commonly raised question on this thread: “Is it too late to buy MMED?” Any investment is subject to the risk / reward paradigm. Those that got in at $0.3 deserve every penny they earned as MMED was by definition a penny stock and one of the most risky investments you could own. Since then, it has grown tremendously due to scientific milestones which have pointed to significant progress in the industry.
The milestones MMED has achieved have DERISKED MMED from a penny stock to a small cap biotech company with a very large drug portfolio and numerous future catalysts. I do not expect to make 10x my investment in a week, nor should you. Is there still tremendous upside even at the current valuation of ~$1.5bn? I strongly believe so and will let my position reinforce that.
I entered this space with an average cost of ~$4.9 CAD, holding 311,206 shares, and a book value of ~1.5MM. Yes you read that correctly. Do I panic every day and check the ticker? No. Does my heart beat thinking of the time I evaporated ~$500,000 in unrealized loss when the stock was at $3.4? No. In fact, I continue to pick up shares at what I believe is a discounted valuation. There will be many that look at $4.9 entry point and think that even I got in at the bottom. It’s all relative.

OP's Original Investment
I only invested what I could afford to lose and although $1.5MM is a large sum of money, it is not my entire portfolio, nor would it impact my daily life. If I lost it all it would not impact my ability to service my mortgage, pay my bills, impact my other investments, nor prohibit me from doing the things I love. I continue to hold dry powder and monitor my investment on a monthly basis, while continuing to buy following successful milestones.
This is a very long term play that could fundamentally change the way we treat the body’s most important organ. We are just getting started. I have a very strong conviction on the future outcome of this industry and that is the reason I couldn’t be bothered about short term fluctuations. An important question to ask yourself is whether you believe MMED can reach its next scientific milestone. Take things one step at a time and is there a probability the next scientific update will be positive? Emphasis on science, ignoring NASDAQ, candlesticks, and capital structure (for now).
Institutional Capital
I work in finance (albeit project finance / private equity, and don’t value stocks for a living, so don’t consider me an expert here) but already know of a few moderately capitalized asset managers that are now participating in MMED. The recent bought deals are evidence of sophisticated capital flowing into this industry. I personally qualify as an ‘accredited investor’ and am having conversations constantly with folks in my circles who are investing heavily into these stocks. As more institutional capital flows in, the more stable these stocks become. Of course, this is all relative.
Access to liquidity
As with all brand new industries, the capital requirement is immense in order to bring products to market. What drew me into the space was the fact that MMED did raise capital. Biotech stocks do not have cashflow, thus their only path to fund operations is through equity raises. The fact that MMED was able to raise over $237MM CAD since May 2019 is a positive for this company. Yes it is dilutive, and good job for paying attention in finance 101 class, but bootstrapping a biotech company is not possible, nor is servicing debt.
The path to commercialization of will be full of obstacles, however a strong balance sheet with sufficient capital gives MMED the resources to get there. The current valuation has tremendous upside following scientific milestones and future equity raises and dilutions are a good thing, as it will be at an increased valuation.
There are definitely smaller cap companies out there that may double overnight, however for the risk / reward, I do not feel comfortable owning companies that don’t have a large balance sheet, nor a diversified drug portfolio.
Believe in the Science
I do not feel I am in a position to write original content on the efficacy of these drugs. I have done my research and read a fair number of published studies but anything that I write would simply be regurgitating what others have said.
The biggest investors in this space are those with personal experiences with psychedelics because you have first-hand experience of the profound meaning extracted from one treatment. The ability to dissolve your ego enables you to deal with the root cause of so many problems ranging from depression, PTSD and addition, without approaching the problem by numbing symptoms. Herein lies the inherent value of this industry and will simply take time to prove it through trails. I have the conviction to continue to invest because I believe in the science. The data to reinforce this is on its way, and I personally want to invest now, knowing that the likelihood of very significant catalysts are probable.
Forecasts
This of course is the elephant in the room for early investors, later[er] investors and bears alike. Is a $1.5bn market cap pricing in all of the upside already? Is this a $100bn stock? This company has zero revenues, shouldn’t it be worth zero?
The truth is, no one knows. There is tremendous risk with this company. However, I will not be selling unless we see some significant negative scientific outcomes. Again, less emphasis on stock price, NASDAQ, more emphasis on the science. Everything else will follow.
The various ways to value a company (DCF, sales / earnings multiples, liquidation value etc) all have their issues with an early stage company of this nature. Any sort of bottoms up DCF analysis is just guessing because variables such as patient count, dosage, pricing, market share, market penetration, amongst other have far too much variation to come up with a reliable figure. Discount rates and time horizon can favour your outcome depending on how aggressive / conservative you are.
Thus, the way I like to look at this market is a best case scenario for a single drug, based off historical sales data from one company and one drug. This implicitly takes into account patient dosage, competition, market share, market penetration etc, because one drug from one company has already proven its ability to capture such sales data.

Data
I have broken out annual sales data for various comparable drugs according to MMED’s current pipeline offering. This is the inherent benefit of MMED, is that it has a diverse portfolio covering many underserved issues. Like many of you, I believe MMED’s biggest blockbuster will be Layla, given the problem of Opioid addition plus MMED’s IP rights on 18-MC to corner sales. Suboxone is the current drug on the market due to delayed onset effects ranging from 24-36 hours, compared to someone in withdrawal uses fast acting opioids 3-4 times a day. Suboxone itself however is still addictive and has a long list of negative side effects. Furthermore, it does not correct dopamine dysregulation in patients.
The sales of Suboxone alone are growing at an ~9% CAGR, with sales expected to reach ~$4bn in 2028
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/18/2079779/0/en/Opioid-Use-Disorder-OUD-in-8-Major-Markets-2018-2028-Reformulations-of-Buprenorphine-Will-Drive-Growth.html.
The use case for 18-MC however, does not stop at Opioid addiction, and can be applied to alcohol dependency and smoking dependency among others. This means the TAM for 18-MC could be significantly larger than the existing market captured by Suboxone given its smaller demographics relative to 18-MC. Could Layla exhibit sales greater than Suboxone one day? Who knows. Sticking with comp sales for the analysis for now.
Various anxiety, depression and ADHD medication is also shown in the table to show sales potential of Lucy, Albert and the micro dose programmes.
Is there a possibility of a LSD, 18-MC, or LSD compound or derivative achieving blockbuster drug status? Do you think there is an inherent benefit to a psychedelic compared to an antidepressant sedative with side effects such as nausea, weight gain etc?
Your perceived probability and sales outcomes depends on whether you believe in the science. Those that don’t can easily be skeptical of a $1.5bn market cap many years away from profitability.
Those that do, look at the next half a dozen clinical trial outcomes as very probable and thus have applied a less punitive discount to the stock valuation. I have rationalized my decision to invest at $1.5MM because of my own perceived discount rate and confidence in the next 12 months of positive catalysts.
Valuation Multiples
Now, as many of you know, investors pay a multiple for the future earnings of a company, today. If a drug makes $1bn annually, investors will pay a multiple of future earnings expected over the drugs lifetime, discounted by various factors.
There are various metrics to use here, ranging from Enterprise Value / Sales or various types of earnings metrics. MMED is years away from having a real operating company, anything to sell, or even the corporate infrastructure to get it to market. However, the question has always been, how big do you think this company could get?
This is where things can get tricky. We used peak annual sales in the last section to forecast comparable estimates for MMED revenues. Thus, I believe it is appropriate to use mature, large cap trading multiples instead of early stage bio techs, as our revenue estimates were mature figures with stabilized growth. If we were to use companies / drugs earlier in their lifecycle or clinical phases, the trading multiples would be much higher because the market is buying potential future sales. Can’t have it both ways.

Chart
All of the chart data in the graph is specific to the pharma industry. However, there are various subsectors to the industry such as Contract Development Manufacturing and Contract Research Organization. MMED would likely have to partner with each of these types of firms to scale its business, better assess market size etc, but wouldn’t trade at similar multiples given a different business model. Same goes for Packaging and Distribution.
The graph also shows S&P average which is a good rule of thumb.

Other chart
Although the chart gives a good reference point for pharma multiples, I wanted to look at valuation from a more company specific perspective. The chart above shows large cap specialty pharma companies that are publically traded. This will give you an approximate median value of what the market is willing to pay for a company that has a certain amount of sales. As you can see in the green box, industry multiples of EV/EBIITDA or EV/Sales will basically get you to the same place. Median pharma industry EBITDA margins are in the 40% range with EV/Sales at ~4x vs EV/EBITDA of 10x.
Note that the above list of trading comps is stale data, as of Sept ’19. I only want to use public data and have refrained from using Bloomberg, Cap IQ etc. Thus the information I’m posting is merely reposts of info available on Google. As you can see, Allergan is listed in this table as a live trading comp, and has since been acquired by AbbVie. Accordingly, I want to highlight some notable M+A activity:
Amgen acquires Celgne’s plaque psoriasis drug, Otezla $13.4bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.6x Thermo Fisher acquires Qiagen for $11.5bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.3x Abbvie acquires Allergan for $84.2bn: EV / LTM Sales = 5.4x Elanco acquires Bayer’s animal health unit for $7.6bn: EV / LTM Sales = 4.5x As you can see, companies are willing to pay a premium in M&A to acquire competitors and drugs, due to synergies, reduction in SG&A etc.
This is a very long winded way of showing that if one of MMED’s compounds hits, and exhibits sales in line with any sort of comparable drug from the table above, this could be a $20-30 billion dollar company (~4bn*5-7x). If several of these drugs reach commercialization, this is potentially a $100 billion dollar company.
Now I agree that these projections are completely outlandish right now. I’m simply doing the exercise you all wanted.
Feel free to guess at your own forecast sales and multiply out enterprise value using the above metrics. Before you rip me apart for the extreme optimism, I understand that I’m using multiples for stable, reputable, large cap pharma. I understand that there is an extreme amount of stigma attached to psychedelics and achieving ubiquity for these treatments is a large uphill battle. There is an enormous amount of work, luck and time from now until sales and this is not to be under estimated.
Do I think MMED is worth $30-$100bn today? No.
Do I think MMED is worth somewhere in between today’s valuation and $30-$100bn?
Depends whether you believe in the science. If you’re reading this, odds are you do. I invested because I believe it too.
So instead, let’s take a lazy man’s approach to valuation and take things one step at a time.
Simpler Approach to Valuation
The exercise above is to show you all the immense potential of MMED’s drug portfolio. Do I think MMED is the next Pfizer, Abbie Vie or Eli Lilly? No. This is not a $500bn dollar company. However, I do genuinely think there is tremendous upside not factored into the pricing for this stock.
Fundamental analysis aside, I think the simplest way to approach valuation is from a catalyst + efficient market hypothesis perspective. Markets are not fully efficient, nor even semi-efficient, but there is some sort of reasoning in believing what the market is willing to pay. The obvious flaws in this are that the market right is riddled with irrational investors and a market of 300m financially illiterate traders isn’t more efficient than an illiquid market of 10 rational ones. As of today’s post there is a discount to the $4.40 price. To me, that’s just more opportunity to continue to scoop up more shares.
I have stayed out of the industry in the early days because truthfully I did not know which stocks to pick. Since then, much smarter people than me have done their diligence and allocated their capital to the companies that they believe are winners. This is part of an efficient market hypothesis.
Sophisticated capital flowed into MMED @ 4.40 / share, with the expectation to make a profit. I also, invested in this company at $4.9/share, with the expectation to make a profit. If we establish this as a baseline, do we believe there will be more positive than negative catalysts in the next year and in the future, such that we will see accretion in the share price? Conversely, if we see negative outcomes in future catalysts, it will cause erosion in the stock valuation. Below are near term events which should have a significant impact on share price:
Project Lucy
Phase 2 readout– Q1 2021 Open IND w/ FDA for Phase 2b – Q3 2021 Project Layla
Phase 2a study– Second half of 2021 Strategic Pharma Partner Potential – Late 2021 Various
Combined MDMA LSD Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 IV DMT Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 First ever Phase 2a clinical trial Microdose LSD – Q3 2021 Patent filed for neutralizer technology for LSD to shortestop hallucinogenic effects Game changer for safe, regulated environment for clinical administration Given that Phase 1 studies are focused on safety, what are the odds clinically developed LSD / MDMA fails a safety test?
Given that Phase 2 studies are focused on proof of concept and method, what are the odds the clinically designed process fails the test?
Believe in the science.
Each one of these incremental catalysts derisks MMED, and will bring the valuation closer to ‘blockbuster drug’ status, albeit inches at a time. Just as the bought deal derisked this company for me to participate, achievements in clinical trials will be evidence for more investors to jump in as well. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and guess at how large this company can get. Just think of what is the next step and do your own evaluation as to whether achieving it is realistic. Once we get through the above list, there will be more milestones to pass such as Phase 2bs and 3s. If we establish $4.40 as the baseline currently and MMED has a successful outcome in any of the previously listed catalysts, there should be a significant accretion in valuation.
There is a noticeable omission for most of you, in that I’ve left out the NASDAQ up listing, future dilutions and general capital structuring events. To me, a NASDAQ uplisting is irrelevant. This will add liquidity, although probably more volatility, but changes zero fundamentals about the stock. It should however, add more weight to the efficient market hypothesis and erase the discount I believe this stock is trading at. We’ll see some analyst coverage with price targets that will attract more investors, but the fundamentals of the stock do not change.
With respect to stock price, it is impossible to forecast this because the capital structure of this company is completely unknown. IF we can even get to revenue generation, and this becomes a $30-100bn company, how much dilution will there be from now until then to back out a share price? The point is that there is so much runway in share price accretion from now until then, that I’m not bothered with anything finance related for this company. There is potential for 50-70x accretion in the value of this company. The focus needs to be on the science. MMED has raised enough money to get though its next set of obstacles and fund operations, thus insolvency risk has fallen away for now which is really the only important financial point for early stage biotech.
Let’s take things one step at a time, believe in the science and be patient.
Cash position & Expenditures
As you can see below, the quarterly burn payroll burn rate is quite low for MMED relative to its cash position. It’s hard to discern which items under their historical expenditures are one off versus recurring, thus difficult to calculate their exact run rate. However, the huge positive here the low ratio of payroll relative to its cash.

Data table
Next up we have the projected use of proceeds from their latest raise, net of underwriter expenses. Now that the Over-Allotment has been exercised, MMED has additional capital that it has further allocated to Albert, Lucy, Layla and the Microdose LSD program.
Proceeds Table
General takeaway is that MMED is well enough capitalized to get through its next phase of milestones. I will be keeping an eye on news surrounding the Microdose LSD program. Estimates at this stage for Phase 2a are $3-4m and the results of which will inform capital expenditures required for future phases. A positive milestone in Q3 ’21 should be an incredibly positive catalyst for this company.
Proving that you’ve raised capital and have enough cashflow to get to the next step doesn’t guarantee we’ve picked the winner in the industry. It does however give me confidence that MMED will continue to be a going concern for at least the short term and get to a point when new investors can come in at a much higher valuation. This is a real risk for the penny stocks out there without capital or IP, and that is the reason I chose MMED.
Edit: Did some re-formatting to make it easier to read cause it's pretty lengthy and there's a lot of details. Hopefully it helps.
Edit #2: I went back into the trash compacter and salvaged the original data and charts since some people were asking. The resolution may be questionable, so apologies for that, you might have to zoom in.

GME - Shkreli Thoughts 1/29

I was away the last few days giving depositions to a different three-letter government agency--sorry about that. GME continues to be a Carollian experience. Through this looking-glass, there is a world where stock prices do not reflect the value of the underlying companies whose partial ownership is traded through common stock. To some, the market is, more or less, broken, for now. That's not a good or a bad thing. The market mechanism is not supposed to make an implicit judgment. There is information in price, but that information is difficult to divine and interpret. Markets aren't good, bad, rational or irrational: they just are.
When one group takes action in a market to alter the playing field, the market is not a pure market anymore. It's lost 'integrity' and loses more with every modification. This typically only happens in moments of crisis or technological change: countries ban short-selling, for instance; exchanges will unwind clear 'fat-finger' trades, etc; speed bumps may make the market more 'fair' for the technologically behind. We're learning more about how markets can have what appear to be 'unintended' consequences (flash crashes, GME-style reverse crashes), or can be 'gamed' (spoofing, quant as a whole), but we're back to square one: markets don't have feelings. The rules are simple: post your price, the amount, and the rest is order-matching. All of the rest are modifications against the spirit of the laws of the jungle.
So, like you, I'm disgusted by what happened the other day. My guess is the DTC and others required incremental collateral for clearing any GME trades--this required RH to raise capital. I actually don't think RH is to blame here! Every broker did the same thing, so there must be a root cause. I mentioned something like this may happen the other day, and I repeat my admonition to not trade on margin. I suspect GME long buying will require 100% margin at virtually any broker. Brokers have to protect themselves, but they can be influenced by the rest of the parties in their food chain, as we saw.
GME is still worthless compared to its current price. Keep that in mind. You're buying a flower, a baseball card, a beanie baby, a photocopy of a Picasso, all for prices that you know are a lot more--not just a lot more, but insanely more--than anything close to what it could be worth. Those are the facts: GME is just a shitty retailer that will struggle to survive, let alone become a business worth 20 or 30 billion dollars. All of the Ryan Cohen transformation stuff is BS relative to the price change. A good team may be able to turn around GME to the point where it is worth $40, MAYBE. It'll never be worth $300, or at least, the probability that GME operations could support a reasonable price like that is about as small as my odds of becoming a MLB starting pitcher.
That doesn't mean the stock can't go up. The world is conflating what a market is by trying to assign it implicit judgment. Traders have the right to buy and sell anything they'd like for any price that they'd like. One man's "bubble" is another man's "deep value." I bought a rap CD for millions of dollars. That's my right. Did I overpay? Well, that's really not a judgment anyone can make, is it? If I paid $10,000,000 for a baseball card which is well-known to trade for $5, then it seems clear I've overpaid, right?
No. Speculators buy assets for many reasons. Sometimes its because they're making a value judgment: this is WORTH more than my purchase price. But what does that imply? What is worth or value? Most speculators (I suppose you can define that as a buyer who has an explicit intention to sell at a later date, probably soon) buy things because they are confident they can sell at a higher price soon. The value judgment is secondary, and sometimes not relevant at all. Speculators are the animating spirit of the market. If you curb the ability for speculators to act, you have a farcical excuse of a market. But, you can't blame a clearing broker for saying, "what happens if your client can't clear this trade?". The stock just went from 300 to 150--what if your client is broke? To me, the simple answer there is to require 100% margin. Limiting the ability for someone to buy a stock for 100% margin (literally the cash to cover the trade is set aside) smells awful. I wouldn't bother with conspiracies--they won't help you trade well.
Many of you are brand new to the world of trading. I've traded my whole life--it is very, very hard. I am not very good at it, to be frank. I do think I'm a very good value investor, and in biotech, an extremely good binary-event trader. 99% of people, including in finance, are not good traders. 99% of people are not good 'value' investors, either. That doesn't mean you shouldn't want to become one or try. But it is inordinately difficult. There's nothing wrong with hobbies or 'side gigs', but I really think you should think about the market like a professional sport, or fighting/boxing league, where you are permitted to 'play with the pros'. It doesn't make too much sense to 'part time' fight Brock Lesnar or take LeBron 1-on-1. But this is what you're doing when you trade. Be careful.
For those newish to trading, here is my advice on some reading materials:
1) Market Wizards series. This is one of the best series on great investors/traders, which takes you into the mind of the successful trader, in their words. It's always by the same author (JS), too, who is very experienced and knowledgable.
2) Trading to Win by Ari Kiev. Read it. Probably the best book on the theory of trading ever written.
3) AVOID most books on trading. Unless there is a reason to read them that you can really digest, they're probably empty wastes of time at best, or at worse, could mislead you into some terrible strategy. You can't go wrong reading the books by or about people who have made fortunes in the market. But always take everything as a grain of salt. AVOID the opinions of others in general. This sounds self-referential, but will make a little bit more sense after reading 1/2.
When you read these books, you'll realize that my life of 'value investing' is basically irrelevant to the near-term of the stock market, especially in situations like GME or TSLA. GME will probably go down over time, as I mentioned, because it is wildly overvalued and, generally, wildly overvalued stocks tend to go down over time. That doesn't have to be true. That's why investors diversify and 'stop-loss' and do other things to protect themselves. You should do all of that, too. My style, and those of others, simply relate the price of something to the amount of cash it can generate. That's value investing in a nutshell, and it is what the entire industry of Private Equity (Blackstone, Apollo, Carlyle, etc.) is all about. Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds do a little of this as well, but to decide whether a stock will go up or down is this dark art called 'trading'. The "next" Steve Cohen might be being born right here, right now, in WallStreetBets. Who knows.
I still think GME will trade at 1,000. Why? I am guessing, like all of you, and every other trader out there. No one knows anything. As I mentioned, the borrow interest rate is what I think is important to watch. You're at a disadvantage to other traders in that respect: hedge funds can pull up that information through phone calls, contacts, etc. which you are hopeless to compete against. It doesn't mean they're going to make money and you won't. It's just something to think about. I like 1,000: it's a big round number that is meaningful in the psychology of the markets, to a very small extent. It may trade there for 5 seconds, or it may trade there and keep going higher. For some reason, I think the stock has a bit of "destiny" to go there. I may be 100% wrong. As I said, to the extent I have any skill at all, it's generally in being able to predict the value of stocks of companies (and other assets) many years from now, and in biopharma, if anywhere.
I hope everyone does well, and even is being entertained, by all of this. Just make sure that if you have a massive gain in GME, that you 'take something off the table'. Don't be greedy. Some of this money is life-changing. Even if it is 10% of your position, book some kind of gain. It will feel good. Be objective. Don't use margin--you may lose more than you can afford. I've been there. It sucks balls worse than you can imagine. Don't do it for GME, even if RH or anyone else lets you. Don't go too crazy with options, even if they let you. I hope you all are able to buy Wu-Tang albums, tendies, autism treatment and whatever else your hearts desire at the 'end' of this, whatever that means. Good luck WSB, I love you!
(sent from martin, posted by mo)

(Spoilers Extended) The Optimist's Gambit: Why George RR Martin Always Thinks He's Closer Than He Actually Is, Part 2: THE WINDS OF WINTER

Intro

A year after George RR Martin finished A Dance with Dragons, he updated his fans on The Winds of Winter:

THE WINDS OF WINTER. Also known as "Son of Kong." Working on it. Lots to do.

Massive and very specific update on The Winds of Winter complete, George turned to another project:

THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE. The concordance. Elio and Linda are my partners on this one, a compendium of the history and legends of the world of Westeros. A coffee table book, lots of gorgeous art from such talents as Ted Nasmith, Justin Sweet, and others. Making good progress on this one of late, lots of great historical stuff that I think my readers will enjoy. Never before revealed details of Aegon's Conquest, the War With the Faith, The Dance of the Dragons, the Paramours of Aegon the Unworthy, etc.

Hm. That seems much more detailed. This would become a pattern for George in the early years after A Dance with Dragons’ publication. He’d update at length on all of the imaginary history he was inventing for The World of Ice and Fire while occasionally placing a single-yet-generous breadcrumb of an update about Winds into our porridge bowl of need.
This led to fans mostly being in the dark on GRRM's progress on Winds -- with more cynical fans wondered if George was working on on the book at all.
Here’s the thing: George was working on The Winds of Winter. I can prove it. And in 2015 when he optimistically predicted he could finish the book in six months, he had good reason for his optimism. What was that good reason? Because by 2015, GRRM had completed two plot arcs and had wrapped two major POV characters for The Winds of Winter.
You are skeptical. I will convince you. Follow me into the light.

The Leftovers

In his retrospective on A Dance with Dragons, GRRM talked about the chapters he cut to The Winds of Winter, saying:

First, my editors and I made some decisions as to where to end this book which involved shifting a few chapters back into the next volume, THE WINDS OF WINTER. With a series like A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE, there are always judgment calls to make as to where to end one book and begin the next, since you're really dealing with one long story. Does this scene work best at the end of one book or the beginning of the next? Should this character go out with a cliffhanger or with some sort of resolution (be it permanent or temporary)? And so on. And so forth.

Then he talked about the identity of the POV characters that were not in ADWD that had chapters leftover saying:

Sansa, Sam, Aeron Damphair, Arianne, and Brienne have no chapters in A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. Several of those characters had chapters written, completed, and polished that have been moved into THE WINDS OF WINTER.

In the years since 2011, we were told or been able to piece together most of the chapters cut from ADWD to TWOW. They are: Alayne (Sansa I), Mercy (Arya I), Arianne I and II and Aeron Greyjoy (The Forsaken)
In that 2010 post where he talked about cutting Damphair’s chapter from Dance to Winds, he talked about how many pages he had on hand for Winds, saying:

The good news is that I seem to have written more than a hundred pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER already.

Five chapters/100 manuscript pages. Now, let’s turn to the chapters that were moved after Damphair's in 2010. In 2011, GRRM’s editor Anne Groell talked about how two major sequences were cut from ADWD to TWOW. These two sequences are the Battle of Ice and the Battle of Meereen. Originally, these two battles were supposed to close ADWD out, but GRRM voluntarily cut one battle to TWOW, and then Anne Groell convinced him to cut the other battle.
Knowing, now, that GRRM was working on an Asha Battle of Ice chapter in 2014 but released a Theon chapter as his first TWOW sample in December 2011 (right after he finished his ADWD tour and also before he planned to embark on new writing for TWOW), we can reasonably assume that the Theon sample chapter was originally written for ADWD before George voluntarily removed it to TWOW.
Switching to deduction, we can then determine that the Battle of Meereen was the sequence GRRM's editors urged him to cut late in the process. What Battle of Meereen chapters were cut to TWOW? Here, we turn to the Cushing Library and find a display card from the “Deeper Than Swords” event indicating that George cut three chapters from ADWD to TWOW in April/May 2011.
As to who the POVs were, we can make an educated guess that one of them was a Victarion chapter and another one was a Tyrion chapter. Both chapters were read in early 2012 at conventions shortly after GRRM started writing TWOW afresh. As for the third chapter cut, I think this was Barristan’s first chapter. Thanks to zionius_, we know that George was writing Barristan II in April 2012, but in early 2013, GRRM read both Barristan chapters and indicated that the chapters were “new to you but old to me.” That third chapter was probably Barristan I.
The final two chapters we can be relatively certain were written for ADWD and cut to TWOW were a Bran chapter and an Areo Hotah chapter. We only know that Bran was cut thanks to _honeybird who discovered that it was listed among “missing chapters” originally slated as among the final chapters of the book. Additionally, we know that in 2010, Elio Garcia Jr. reported that three Dorne chapters were moved from ADWD to TWOW. Two of those Dornish chapters were Arianne chapters. The third was likely an Areo Hotah chapter.
Post-2010, GRRM cut six additional chapters to Winds. Adding in the previously-accounted-for five chapters, George had eleven leftover chapters as a springboard for Winds. Fast-forwarding to 2012, GRRM told Spanish fan-site Adria’s News that he had two hundred “really finished” manuscript pages for TWOW -- probably all of his leftover material from Dance (100 pages/5 chapters cut in 2010 + 100 pages/6 chapters cut in 2010/2011).
The identity of these chapters gives us a springboard for understanding where George was when he returned to writing Winds anew in early 2012, but it's important to note that George started Winds with a much smaller sample of leftover chapters than when he split Feast and Dance in 2005. Recall, then, that he had 542 manuscript pages/22 chapters done for ADWD.
But there's another and perhaps even more important difference: From all available evidence, George did not have complete story arcs like he did when he split AFFC/ADWD.
In 2005, George believed that the amount of material he had leftover put him over halfway complete on Dance. That was not the case for The Winds of Winter in 2012 where he only had 200 of the expected 1500 manuscript pages completed.

Early Progress on TWOW (2012)

When George began writing new material for Winds in 2012, he faced a daunting amount of new writing to finish the book. And given his track record, any old and new writing for Winds would be rewritten, revised and restructured.
So, how was it that George thought he was close enough in 2015 to get the book out before Game of Thrones, Season Six aired -- just three years after writing new material for TWOW?
We’ll start with what we know of George’s early progress on TWOW.
As we talked about above, George had about 200 new manuscript pages for the book between January and June 2012 -- work he considered to be “in rough form.” As to what specifically was contained in those 200 rough draft pages, we know that:

George reported having a partially written complementary chapter set between the finished Arianne II and the unwritten Arianne III in 2010. Link
He was working on Barristan's second TWOW chapter in April 2012. Link
He was writing about the Dothraki in May 2012. (A Daenerys chapter) Link
George sent a “batch” (3-5) of Arya TWOW chapters to Jonathan Robert, artist for The Lands of Ice and Fire to help in the creation of the map for Braavos in early 2012. Link

That’s about the extent of what we know about those 200 manuscript pages. Given the benchmark that 100 manuscript pages = ~5 chapters, he wrote rough drafts of ~10 total new chapters.
Fast-forwarding to a year later, Anne Groell reported receiving a batch of 168 manuscript pages from TWOW for a contracted payment from Random House in February 2013, and George reported being “about a quarter of the way done” on TWOW a month later. My reading is that GRRM finalized 168 of the 200 draft manuscript pages or ~9 additional chapters for TWOW.
So, by early-2013, GRRM had 368 manuscript pages and ~20 finalized chapters for TWOW complete for TWOW.
However, Anne Groell reported that the 168 manuscript pages wasn’t everything that George had written:

I currently have 168 pages that he submitted back in Feb 2013 in order to receive a contracted payment, but I know more exists, because he keeps talking about chapters he hasn't yet sent me.

This throws a wrench into things as George having 368 manuscript pages complete for Winds lines up well with his statement a month later that he was “about a quarter of the way done.” So, how to square that circle? What I'd guess is that George sent all of his finalized chapters forward to his publishers while retaining mostly-finished chapters he still wanted to polish.
To sum it up: from what we know: In 2012, George wrote ~200 manuscript pages and was specifically working on the Barristan, Daenerys and Arya chapters.
Meanwhile, GRRM was making significant progress on The World of Ice and Fire.

The Written World(book)

Let’s pause on Winds and switch over to George’s progress on The World of Ice and Fire for reasons that will become clear later on.
Shortly after returning from his ADWD tour, George began writing The World of Ice and Fire. As elio_garcia told me a few years back, George first wrote the history of Aegon’s Conquest which he sent to them in May 2012. Thereafter, GRRM wrote detailed histories of the various Targaryen monarchs, but where he really focused on was the history of the dance of the dragons.
By September 2012, Martin reported having 103 manuscript pages on the dance of the dragons. But even that was not the full extent of all he wrote on that event. In August 2013, George finished the dance of the dragons, writing 80,000 words solely on that particular Targaryen civil war.
Reasonably, many fans wondered whether The World of Ice and Fire detracted from George’s progress on The Winds of Winter. In terms of the sheer amount of time and effort it took to write the worldbook: probably, yes. However, as we’ll explore later on, George probably used his writing on The World of Ice and Fire as part of the process for writing The Winds of Winter.

Winds Progress (2013)

Switching back to Winds. By early 2013, George was only a quarter of the way complete on The Winds of Winter. Meanwhile, Game of Thrones was a few months away from airing the third season. So, George had to pick up the pace for the book to get ahead of the show.
The major issue in getting ahead of the show was that 2012 only had him finalizing ~10 new chapters, and in terms of completed story, he hadn’t finished writing the battles of Meereen and Ice that were supposed to close out ADWD. So, George seemingly continued work on the Battle of Meereen, writing and completing Tyrion’s second Winds chapter sometime between February and August 2013 as it wasn’t a part of the batch of chapters that Anne Groell received in February 2013, but he read the chapter at Worldcon 2013.
Meanwhile, in May 2013, George was asked point-blank by Portuguese fans what POV character he was working on, and he responded with “Arya.”.
Later in 2013, GRRM stated on his notablog that “you will definitely hear more of Jeyne Westerling.”. Given that we later learned at ComicCon 2014 that Jeyne Westerling will be seen in the Winds Prologue, we can speculatively-assume that George had written at least a draft or partial form of the Prologue by 2013.
Elsewise in 2013, we learned that GRRM requested Dothraki translations for The Winds of Winter from David J. Peterson (The creator of the Dothraki Language for Game of Thrones). This implies that George had Daenerys material written by 2013 and needed it translated from English to Dothraki.
So, again, in 2013, we see George working on the Battle of Fire, Daenerys and Arya (and also the Prologue).

The Locomotive Approaches (2014)

By 2014, two things happened. The first was that George RR Martin finished The World of Ice and Fire in March 2014. The second was that George realized that Game of Thrones was catching up to him.
First, The World of Ice and Fire. In March 2014, George RR Martin completed a chapter on the Iron Islands and finished the book. As he reported in that post, his completion of The World of Ice and Fire was late, owing to him being a slow writer but also due to him adding a lot to the book (Sound familiar?).
GRRM concluded his notablog post by saying:

And HEY, this means another monkey is off my back. Only a couple left gibbering up there now. That little joker monkey, HIGH STAKES. And... gulp… SON OF KONG.

Part of George’s nervousness about confronting the Son of Kong was based in how high of a mountain he had to climb to complete the book, but the bigger part is that he had a locomotive heading for him in the form of Game of Thrones.
In the early years after Game of Thrones premiered, GRRM wasn’t exactly dismissive of the idea that Game of Thrones would catch up to him, but he didn’t seem overly concerned.
By 2014, though, things had changed. Now about to air its fourth season, Game of Thrones was approaching the end of George’s published ASOIAF material. George, to his credit, was now cognizant of this, telling Vanity Fair in 2014:

“It’s my hope that they’ll [do two or three seasons for AFFC/ADWD] and then, long before they catch up with me, I’ll have published The Winds of Winter, which’ll give me another couple years. It might be tight on the last book, A Dream of Spring, as they juggernaut forward.”

The problem for George was that David Benioff and Dan Weiss were not interested in adapting A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons into multiple seasons. Instead, they were only looking at doing these two books in one season.
In response, George transitioned most of his creative output to The Winds of Winter. Sadly, we don’t know much of this output, really only being sure that George was writing: Daenerys and Asha.
On a brief appearance on the John Oliver show, GRRM appeared from his office with the computer screen on. Years later, fans were able to figure out that George was working on an Asha Greyjoy Battle of Ice chapter.
Onto Daenerys. In September 2014, in an interview with Galaxy Magazine (link unfortunately behind a paywall or in a hard copy), George talked about his writing for Winds saying:

“I’m going back to The Winds of Winter and writing the next scene—I’ve got Dany in a particular situation. I’ve just got to worry about how does this scene resolve? How do I end this chapter? How do I phrase this sentence?”

Finally, when George released the Mercy chapter, he talked a little about his progress, saying:

So far, I have not done anywhere near as much rewriting on WINDS... but of course, it is not done yet.

Fans took this as a qualitative sign of George’s progress back in 2014. The problem was quantitative. Information about how much of The Winds of Winter was done by 2014 is sparse. However, at a November 2014 charity drive for the Wild Wolf Sanctuary, George off-handedly said:

"I'm still in the middle of [The Winds of Winter], so it'll be some time before I write the scenes in which they die."

Provided that George wasn’t using “the middle of the book” colloquially, this meant that Winds was roughly halfway complete by November 2014, or had 750 finalized manuscript pages for TWOW. George had picked up his pace in writing TWOW, but he still had a long way to go to reach the finish line -- an additional ~750 manuscript pages.

The Deep Breath Before the Plunge:

Before we venture into theory territory, we’re going to take a tactical pause and assess all of the known chapters George completed for The Winds of Winter by late 2014.

Aeron Greyjoy: 1 Chapter
Asha Greyjoy: 1 Chapter
Areo Hotah: 1 Chapter
Arianne Martell: 2 Chapters
Arya Stark: 3-6 Chapters
Barristan Selmy: 2 Chapters
Bran Stark: 1 Chapter
Daenerys Targaryen: 3 Chapters
Prologue: 1 Chapter
Sansa Stark: 1 Chapter
Theon Greyjoy: 1 Chapter
Tyrion Lannister: 2 Chapters
Victarion Greyjoy: 1 Chapter

In total, that’s 19-23 completed chapters that we can be sure existed. If George was truly halfway done on Winds by 2014, that tacks on an additional ~19 chapters to bring us up to 38-42 chapters/750 manuscript pages completed for Winds by late 2014. For comparative purposes: A Storm of Swords was 1521 manuscript pages/82 chapters while ADWD was 1510 manuscript pages/72 chapters. What this means is that in a best-case scenario, George had to write or finalize an additional ~30 chapters/750 manuscript pages for the book to get to the finish line: a daunting task!
So, then why in early 2015 (four months after he said he was “in the middle”) did George RR Martin tell Entertainment Weekly that he could get the book out before Game of Thrones, Season 6?:

Having The Winds of Winter published before season 6 of Thrones airs next spring “has been important to me all along,” says the best-selling New Mexico author. “I wish it was out now. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic about how quickly I can finish. But I canceled two convention appearances, I’m turning down a lot more interviews—anything I can do to clear my decks and get this done.”

This interview was conducted in April 2015, and given what Martin later said about his publishing house setting an initial deadline of October 2015 to release the book, George thought he only had six months of work to do before the book would be done.
And that’s why I think George’s optimism about getting the book done by October 2015 was sourced to what he had already written, rather than what he had left to write. In that, I now believe George finished major storylines for The Winds of Winter by late 2014/early 2015.

The Completed Battles

Among the known completed chapters for Winds, one thing that stands out is how many of the chapters dealt with the Battle of Meereen and the Battle of Ice. From our best information, four battle chapters were removed from Dance, and George wrote at least three additional battle chapters between 2012-2014.
Let’s move into theory ground: in looking at the available evidence, it appears that when George got back to writing The Winds of Winter, he picked up where he left off: in Meereen. Completing Barristan’s second chapter in 2012 and then Tyrion’s second chapter in 2013 indicates that George’s initial forays into Winds were Meereenese-centric. But after 2013, we don’t hear about George working on Meereen.
Over to the Battle of Ice. The Asha fragment reads like the opening moves of the Battle of Ice, chronologically occurring almost immediately after the Theon sample chapter where Stannis tells Justin Massey:

“I want you gone before midday, ser. Lord Bolton could be on us any moment, and it is imperative that the banker return to Braavos. You shall accompany him across the narrow sea.”

To get speculative, it reads like George hadn’t written anything about the Battle of Ice between the Theon Winds chapter and the Asha chapter he was working on in June 2014. Yet we know that George had written additional Theon, Asha and Victarion Winds chapters by 2017.
All of this leads me to think that by the end of 2014, George had finished the Battle of Meereen, and I think it’s possible he completed the Battle of Ice as well.
That’s two major plot-points possibly complete by the end of 2014. Still, even with those story points hypothetically completed, George had only finished story arcs originally intended for ADWD.
And that’s why he wasn’t just done with the battles by 2014. He might have completed far more than that. Entire POV characters.

Daenerys Targaryen the Complete

Let’s start with an uncontroversial statement: By 2014, I believe that George RR Martin had completed what he thought was all of Daenerys Targaryen’s chapters for The Winds of Winter.
Kindly drop the rocks that have suddenly materialized in your hands. I know that is a controversial theory. It was a joke! For this particular hypothesis that George had all of Dany’s chapters done by 2014, I started with the problem of “How the fuck did George think he could finish Winds by 2015 given how little of the book seemed to be done by that point? And then my research took me to everything we knew about Daenerys in Winds and then by accident, I stumbled on the split between Feast and Dance.
That accidental stumbling led to a whole essay on this topic. In that essay, I talked about how George believed he had Daenerys' and Tyrion’s ADWD story arcs complete before he split AFFC/ADWD into two separate books. This, along with the started-yet-incomplete Jon, Davos, Arya, Asha arcs, led to his optimism that ADWD would be finished by 2006.
I think something similar happened with The Winds of Winter. I think George had completed Daenerys Targaryen’s arc (and another arc I’ll unpack in the next section) by 2014. Is there evidence for this wild-ass theory? Perhaps!
In June 2014, George RR Martin was interviewed by James Hibberd and teased The Winds of Winter, saying:

“Well, Tyrion and Dany will intersect, in a way, but for much of the book they’re still apart,” he says. “They both have quite large roles to play here. Tyrion has decided that he actually would like to live, for one thing, which he wasn’t entirely sure of during the last book, and he’s now working toward that end—if he can survive the battle that’s breaking out all around him. And Dany has embraced her heritage as a Targaryen and embraced the Targaryen words. So they’re both coming home.”

For much of the book, they’re still apart. That’s a fascinating statement! Why? Because it might imply that George had written Dany’s story to its near or actual endpoint!
No, I don’t think this means that George was nearly complete on all of his story arcs. Just Dany's (and the other one). And that tracks with his non-linear writing style whereby he writes from one POV - until he runs out of steam before switching to a separate POV. As George talked about in that interview, sometimes, he gets way ahead on certain POV characters, and even has them completed well in advance of other POV characters.
In that vein, there’s something else odd about Daenerys. After 2014, we don’t hear about George working on a Daenerys chapter … at all. This radio silence on Dany in TWOW lines up with George writing Dany’s ADWD chapters. In 2003, he told a fan that Dany’s ADWD chapters were almost wrapped up -- eight years before he published them. George did write a bit more about Dany after 2003 and after the split of A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons, but the last we hear about him writing Dany chapters for ADWD was in 2008 -- three years before the book was published.
However, to be fair, in 2018, George had one more mention of Dany within the context of her aforementioned intersection with Tyrion, telling Entertainment Weekly:

In Winds, I have like 10 different novels and I’m juggling the timeline — here’s what’s happening to Tyrion, here’s what’s happening to Dany, and how they intersect. That’s far more complicated.

So, the counterargument is that what George was saying about Dany and Tyrion's intersection back in 2014 was aspirational. He planned for the two to intersect late in The Winds of Winter, but he had not written that intersection. And perhaps by 2018, he was still struggling with timing Dany and Tyrion’s intersection.
Here’s a counter-counterargument: George wrote one version of Daenerys and Tyrion intersecting by 2014, was initially satisfied with it, but in the years since, he grew dissatisfied and experimented with the event occurring at different narrative junctures in the Winds -- hence the “I’m juggling the timeline” wording.
At the very least, George juggling the timeline of character intersections by writing multiple versions of it is something George has done in the past. Back in ADWD, he reported writing three versions of Dany and Quentyn’s intersection, timing that to occur at different junctures in the story to see which one was the most narratively-satisfying.
Now, before I leave you all convinced that George had written all of Dany’s TWOW chapters by 2014/2015, there is a good counterargument. About a month ago, I sent the sketch of this theory to feldman10, and he responded by saying:

What I question given his writing style is how GRRM could have “finished” Dany years in advance if she is regularly intersecting with other POVs. For instance, if Barristan, Vic, and Tyrion do reunite with Dany at some point in TWOW (as I certainly hope they do!), I would expect GRRM would begin writing them as all one “story” (unless they split up again). That’s even more important if Dany reaches Westeros and starts interacting with the Young Griff team.
That's really because of the gardening approach. Given that writing style, how could GRRM possibly write Dany’s interactions and conflicts with those other characters without having written them all up to the same point, and therefore having decided what they’ve all experienced, where they’re all coming from, and what their respective gardens have produced?

These are all excellent points by Adam, and I appreciate the counterpoint and have copied and pasted it here with his permission.
And if you thought the “Dany is wrapped” theory is way too speculative, you’re going to love (hate) the next part of the theory.

The Dances of the Dragons

Remember how we talked about George’s progress on The World of Ice and Fire? Let’s bring it home here. Part of the reason why I initially brought up the worldbook is how it's tied into the plotting of The Winds of Winter. It’s almost as if George used his imaginary history as a set of guideposts for The Winds of Winter. But perhaps the imaginary history is more than a guide for the novel.
The theory: What I think happened was that George parallel-wrote the dance of the dragons alongside of his Young Griff story arc in The Winds of Winter.
Recall that in 2010, George had written two Arianne chapters that he cut to The Winds of Winter. Also recall that he had a partially-written complementary chapter and envisioned a third unwritten Arianne chapter. We skipped over the possible identity of that partially written complementary chapter, but here, we’ll talk about it. It’s very likely a Jon Connington chapter as he’s in a prime position to bridge events from the end of TWOW, Arianne II (Arianne goes to Storm’s End) to whatever George is planning for Arianne III.
Right after George published A Dance with Dragons, though, he decided to write another chapter in the Stormlands as werthead reported in August 2011:

As speculated by many, two large battles will take place early on, a ‘battle of ice’ (presumably at Winterfell) and a ‘battle of fire’ (presumably at Meereen). A third battle has been added, namely the assault on Storm’s End by Jon Connington’s forces. Originally this was going to happen off-page, but GRRM decided it really should be shown. Possibly because we’ve seen Storm’s End under siege forever and it might be cool to finally see the place under full-scale assault.

This was another spot where George was expanding Aegon VI’s story, gardening his way towards more satisfactory storytelling vis-à-vis a newly-imagined Jon Connington chapter. It also shows us that George was very much in the mindset of thinking through Young Griff’s storyline just a few months after the publication of ADWD.
And then similar to Daenerys, 2011 was the last time we heard about George writing one of our primary eyes on Young Griff in TWOW. Like the absence of Dany chapters, that is odd. With Dany, George played mostly coy with whether Dany would have chapters, because of the cliffhanger he left Dany on in at the end of her ADWD arc. But with Arianne Martell and Jon Connington, we already knew that Arianne would return as a POV, and George had all-but-confirmed that JonCon would return.
And yet, July 2010 is the last time GRRM talked about writing Arianne’s TWOW chapters while August 2011 is the last time we hear about George’s plan to write a Jon Connington chapter. But in the years immediately following ADWD’s publication, we have a whole body of imaginary history work which reads like signposts for where George was going to take Aegon VI and Daenerys’ story.
Here comes the speculation: I think the whole time George was writing a detailed account of the dance of the dragons for the worldbook, he parallel wrote Young Griff’s story arc in the form of Arianne and Jon Connington’s Winds chapters.
We know that George didn’t set Winds aside while he worked on The World of Ice and Fire as there are Winds chapters we know he was writing in the 2012-2014 timeframe. Logically, it makes sense that George stayed within the same sphere of creative inspiration as he developed the imaginary history in parallel with developing Young Griff's story.
There’s a paragraph which first appeared in The Princess and the Queen (an abridged version of the dance of the dragons) which has always struck me as explicit foreshadowing for Young Griff's story in TWOW. It's this one:

Every visible symbol of legitimacy belonged to Aegon. He sat the Iron Throne. He lived in the Red Keep. He wore the Conquerer’s crown, wielded the Conquerer’s sword, and had been anointed by a septon of the Faith before the eyes of tens of thousands. Grand Maester Orwyle sat in his councils, and the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard had placed the crown upon his princely head. And he was male, which in the eyes of many made him the rightful king, his half sister the usurper.

This paragraph is emblematic of something at work with the entirety of the dance of the dragons that George wrote: namely, that the entire historical conflict and civil war reads as backdrop for Young Griff/Aegon VI’s rise in The Winds of Winter and downfall in A Dream of Spring.
Is it so implausible, then, that GRRM was switching back and forth between writing Arianne and JonCon chapters while writing what became known as "The Dying of the Dragons" section of the worldbook? (Maybe, lol)

What Went Wrong

In 2005, GRRM predicted that ADWD would be published in 2006, sourcing this to how much Dany and Tyrion material was already done. If George had completed all the Dany, JonCon and Arianne chapters by April 2015, GRRM had good reason to believe he could get Winds out in six months. All he had to do was complete the POV arcs for characters supporting Young Griff and Dany’s stories as well as the “bottle storylines” and probably complete one more major story arc.
So, what went wrong?
In his New Year 2016 Winds post, George talked generally about the issues he had after his bout of optimism in 2015, saying things like:

Yes, there's a lot written. Hundreds of pages. Dozens of chapters. (Those 'no pages done' reports were insane, the usual garbage internet journalism that I have learned to despise). But there's also a lot still left to write. I am months away still... and that's if the writing goes well. (Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't.) Chapters still to write, of course... but also rewriting. I always do a lot of rewriting, sometimes just polishing, sometimes pretty major restructures.

Later in the post, he talked about a similar angle, saying:

Even as late as my birthday and our big Emmy win, I still thought I could do it... but the days and weeks flew by faster than the pile of pages grew, and (as I often do) I grew unhappy with some of the choices I'd made and began to revise...

This is George’s gardening style at work: restructuring/rewriting/revising what he considered to be substandard writing. That’s part of the reason George failed to meet his October and then December 2015 deadlines.
But I think there’s a missing piece -- one which has only become apparent in George’s recent posts about the POV characters he’s reported working on in June, August and November 2020: the Dany/Young Griff supporting POV characters and the bottle arcs.
Back in 2005, George was optimistic that he could finish ADWD by 2006, because he merely had to finish Jon’s story along with cast of characters supporting Jon/Dany’s storylines. But what delayed ADWD was the supporting cast of characters – especially in Dany’s storyline as it related to the Meereenese Knot. George struggled for years to satisfactorily write a twisting path of POV characters heading toward – or away – from Meereen, and that, more than anything, delayed that book’s publication.
Turning back to Winds: In recent months, George has indicated that he was writing/visiting the following POVs:

Tyrion Lannister
Barristan Selmy
Areo Hotah
Asha Greyjoy
Cersei Lannister
Arya Stark
Victarion Greyjoy
Melisandre of Asshai
Samwell Tarly

The POV characters listed here are ones likely to be found in support of Dany’s arc (Victarion, Barristan, Tyrion), in Young Griff’s orbit (Cersei and arguably Areo) or bottle arcs -- ones temporarily independent from the rest of the story (Samwell and Arya).
So, in addition to the rewriting/revising/restructuring, I’d argue that what belayed George’s optimism of publishing Winds in 2016 was the supporting cast of POV characters. Those troubles extended beyond 2015 given that George was still working on these POV characters in 2020.

Conclusion (2017-2021)

In the years since 2016, George has optimistically predicted that he'd finish TWOW in 2017. But six months later, GRRM discounted 2017 and thought 2018 was possible. But by mid-2018, he admitted that Winds wasn't coming in 2018. Then in 2019, tongue-in-cheek said New Zealand could imprison him there if he did not have TWOW in hand by Worldcon 2020.
Unfortunately, data on what GRRM was working on is spare, but I'll give it a shot. Given that George talked about how important Lady Stoneheart's story is for TWOW in 2017, my theory is that GRRM made progress on Jaime and Brienne's chapters in 2017.
Meanwhile, you may have noticed that there's another POV character I haven't mentioned: Jon Snow. Will Jon have chapters in TWOW? Are they written? Yes. Perhaps some of his optimism in 2019 is sourced to him making progress on Jon Snow, perhaps even completing his POV arc.
In his last specific update on Winds (As of January 2021), George sounded optimistic once again, :

No, sorry, still not done, but I do inch closer. It is a big big book. I try not to dwell on that too much. I write a chapter at a time, a page at a time, a sentence at a time, a word at a time. It is the only way.

At the beating heart of all of this work that George RR Martin has put into The Winds of Winter is a desire to create a book that satisfies and captivates us. I believe this book will come, and when it does, all of the bleeding into the keyboard will have been worth it.

best odds table games video

Table Games Your Best Bet Jay Bean, a Caesar's floor manager, agreed to sit down with us and talk about the games with the best odds. He said many people don't realize that table games have much On a regular baccarat table, house odds range from 1.01 to 1.24 percent on the BANKER and PLAYER bets. Many baccarat tables have higher limits than the other table games do. But don’t get scared away by a $25 or $50 minimum bet. Which Casino Table Games Offer the Best Odds? Slot machine games are the most-popular games in both land-based and online casinos. But if you want the best opportunity to beat the house, you should choose table games. Several table games feature a house edge under 2%, which gives you a good chance to win. But what are these games? Find out Top 10 Casino Games with the Best Odds of Winning. Borgata offers the best online gambling games with reasonable odds, including table classics such as blackjack, baccarat, roulette, and video poker, as well as the best slots titles online. Play casino games now on our site! Comparing the house edge of several casino games, we found the four popular games that have the best odds: Blackjack. Blackjack is among the easiest casino games to offer the players one of the h3est odds of winning. That’s why it is considered to be the most popular table game in the US. In most cases, Blackjack has an edge of less than 1%. 1) Blackjack – House Edge from 1%. To many gamblers, Blackjack is the best game to play at casino to win money, especially if you apply a basic winning blackjack strategy.This table game has a house edge, or advantage, of an average 1%, which gives the player a winning advantage of 99%. Here are the top 6 casino table games with the best odds. Get ready, set, and go play! Tri Card Poker Everyone loves a good poker table game and Tri Card Poker is no exception. It’s super simple and easy to learn, play and win. This is also a great game to learn if you want to start off learning the basics of poker and the winning hand These bets offer the best odds for table games in the casino for winning the game. BACCARAT; Baccarat follows strict rules on the distribution of cards. Your best bet in this game is a wager on the player. Betting on the bank requires some fees in addition to the initial bet. So, enjoy a game steeped in history. Table games are used to distinguish games of chance such as blackjack, craps, baccarat, and roulette. Casino table games are played between a player and dealer or croupier depending on the table game of choice. The best table games in land-based casinos are tucked away and only available for high roller casino players. The Three Best Casino Games to Play . If you walk into a casino and can't remember the details of this article, keep one thing in mind: you have the best odds of winning at a table game. They may be more intimidating than slots, but they usually work out better for the players.

best odds table games top

The Five Best Casino Bets with Syndicated Gaming Writer ...

Steve Bourie, author of the American Casino Guide, interviewed syndicated gaming writer John Grochowski for this video where John gives his picks for the fiv... The Top 10 Casino Games With The Best Odds Number 10: American Roulette This North American casino game has some of the lowest odds, but still makes the top ... In this low-budget video, Mike gives his list of the ten best bets in the casino for educated recreational players. Wizard's demo games can be found at https... 9 On Your Side's John Matareste visited two Tri-State casinos to get the information. What are your odds at winning casino games? It's extremely difficult for players to go home with winnings.All casino games have a house advantage, which mean... Table Games offer Good Odds. Many people feel intimidated by the thought of playing card games, especially when it comes to playing in a land based casino. Thinking of making some money off gambling? Here are 5 casino games with the highest chances of winning.Visit our website http://www.neoxide.com for more con...

best odds table games

best odds table games - win

[/r/boardgames PGR] Odd request, but games that play well outside with a breeze. Azul is our best example as it uses no cards and all the pieces are weighed down nicely on our table outside.

PLTR DD - brain cells required if you are an ape!

[Trading Card Games] Keyforge: The grand finals where the players took turns playing solitaire until their opponent resigned out of sheer boredom.