[Gary Lineker] Can they tell their families they might be getting a move without having to warn them against betting? If bookies object then they should stop offering odds on players moving, but they won’t do that because they prey on the uninformed.
[WP] You work as a bookie for gamblers with rich blood. One day a man comes to you and puts down a fortune on a ridiculous bet. But this is the moment you've been waiting for. You shove him against the wall. "TTPD!" You shout. "You are under arrest for time-traveling for your own personal gain!"
ESPN says the Chiefs are favorites for 2021. Pythagorean says: don't call your bookie just yet.
TL/DR The 2020 Chiefs had the fewest-ever Pythagorean expected wins of any 14-2 team at 10.45. Don't believe the hype for next year just yet. If you follow baseball, you've probably heard of the Pythagorean formula for predicting wins based on runs scored and runs allowed. It works for football as well (OK, so the exponential is a little different, but whatever). The basic idea is that the proportion of points that a team scores in the games it plays is a good predictor for how many games it will win. If a team gets lucky and wins more than it 'should,' it probably won't do as well in the following season. This is more useful than simple point differential. Suppose you have two teams; one gets in a lot of track meets and outscores its opponents 525-400. The other has a really good defense and outscores its opponents by 400-300. You'd probably expect the second team to do a little better. It would be more capable of protecting leads, even if the games are closer: Team 1: 16 * (525^2.73 / (525^2.73 + 400^2.73)) = 10.84 expected wins Team 2: 16 * (400^2.73 / (400^2.73 + 300^2.73)) = 10.98 expected wins I was bored curious, so I thought it would be interesting to see how all teams that have gone 14-2 or better (since 1978, when the schedule went to 16 games) stack up according to Pythagorean expectation. Results can be found here. In total, 29 teams have won at least 14 games in a 16-game schedule. Unsurprisingly, the 1985 Bears came out the best, with 14.05 expected wins. The interesting thing was that only three other teams in the group had expected win totals that rounded up to 14: 1991 Washington (13.79), 2007 New England (13.76) and 1984 San Francisco (13.63). All of these teams won the Super Bowl in a lopsided fashion (in an alternate timeline where Eli Manning is a fictional character designed to scare small children). The lessons here are that:
Those four teams were really, really good (as were the 13-3 1999 Rams and 1996 Packers, which had expected wins of 13.81 and 13.80, respectively)
Winning fourteen games is pretty damn difficult
It usually takes at least a little luck to win fourteen games
Anyhow, like I said in the tl/dr, the Chiefs had an expected win total of 10.45, good (?) for the worst of any 14-2 team. The 2009 Colts were the only other team with less than 11 expected wins (10.76). Outperforming expected wins by this degree is often a sign of regression to come in the following season; the 2010 Colts went 10-6, for example. For the crowd that prefers larger sample sizes, the Chiefs ranked 77th out of the 80 teams that went at least 13-3. Is this to say that the Chiefs definitely won't go all the way next year? Of course not. But maybe don't bet on it until help arrives on defense.
Might seem like a silly question but can they refuse to take your bets or stop you gambling like a bartender would if you've drank too much? Or will they just let you gamble yourself to bankruptcy?
‼️ATTENTION DEO!: Great Morning fellow DEO family. I am DEO Executive Bruno D. Better know as Old Nigga Baby in the community. I inform you all we may experience a delay on streams, Bruce has been captured by a German gangster from bookie. His release has not been determined. #PrayforBruce DEO4L
What's the most amount of money you've made from a bookie mistake?
Wrong lines? Wrong price for ml? Game still open to bet after game has ended? The other week I put $100 on a Lakers Game being over 0 points at $1.92. bookie paid out lmao. Clear mistake on their part, can't believe they paid out.
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Be a Bookie (3 Tips) - Info on How Much Money Do ...
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